The Implications of California's Special Election

AP

On October 27, 2019, Rep. Katie Hill of California resigned from Congress as a result of a sex scandal. Her 2018 campaign for Congress was highly publicized due to a Vice documentary and because it was one of the last swing districts left in California. Her election victory over Republican incumbent, Rep. Steve Knight, turned the last Republican bastion of Los Angeles County into one held by the Democrats. On May 12, 2020, the Republicans took the seat back. Many believe that this has potential consequences for other Congressional races, particularly for those in the suburbs of Los Angeles and Orange County that the Democrats took from the Republicans.

California’s 25th congressional district consists of northern Los Angeles County and parts of eastern Ventura County. This inlcudes Santa Clarita, Antelope Valley and most of Lancaster, Simi Valley and the San Fernando Valley.

It has been held by Rep. Buck McKeon (R) since 1993 before his retirement and replacement by Knight. The district has been a reliable Republican district that has consistently voted for Republican presidents and has sent over a Republican representative until 2018. As the rest of Los Angeles County and California became Democratic strongholds, the 25th district did not and remained one of the “few cherries in a blueberry pie.”

Democrats realized that the district was up for grabs since the 25th voted for President Obama in 2008 and Hillary Clinton in 2016. Though Democrats were able to secure the votes for president, McKeon and Knight were still able to retain their seats. This changed in 2018 when President Donald Trump’s unpopularity motivated Democrats to take the seat as part of the “blue wave.” Katie Hill’s fame and effective campaign also helped turnout the Democratic vote in the district.

California has a jungle primary where anyone who runs for an office runs alongside every other candidate and a runoff election occurs if no single candidate manages to get a majority.

Smith managed to secure 36.1% of the vote while the Republican candidates together secured 42.7% of the vote. The primary itself was incredibly colorful and attracted a lot of media attention due to some interesting candidates like controversial Young Turks founder and democratic socialist, Cenk Uygur, and Trump campaign advisor and felon, George Pappadapolus, neither of whom had actual substantive ties to the district. 

Though Hill resigned in the midst of a scandal, many analysts and experts still believed that the Democrats had an advantage in the 2020 special election. This belief quickly evaporated as the election went on.

The impressive political machine that helped Hill secure the district was also no longer present as the pandemic forced people inside. Volunteers and staffers that helped drive voter turnout for Hill in 2018 could not operate as effectively since they and the rest of the district were sheltering in place due to the pandemic.

While Hill was able to run as an outsider who could attack Knight’s voting record in Washington without being forced to defend her own legislative record, since she did not have one, the current Democratic candidate could not.

State Assemblywoman Christy Smith represented most of the district in the California state legislature since 2018. She received endorsements from Hill, President Obama, Secretary Hillary Clinton and most of California’s prominent Democrats, including Governor Gavin Newsom, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senator Kamala Harris and Senator Diane Feinstein.

Republican candidate could have faced a similar dilemma to Smith since Knight ran for his seat again. However Knight lost to political outsider Mike Garcia, a former Naval aviator and Raytheon executive.

Garcia ran on being loyal to President Donald Trump and accused Knight, a moderate who occasionally distanced himself from Trump, of being insufficiently loyal to the president. Just like Hill, Garcia was able to emphasize his status as an outsider and was able to attack Smith’s record in Sacramento without having to be forced to defend his own, since he also did not have one.

One particular way Garcia targeted Smith was by emphasizing her votes for higher taxes and against Proposition 13. Garcia also emphasized his Latino heritage and his connections to the military and the aviation industry. The district is economically based around the aviation industry and Edwards Air Force Base and is racially diverse and Garcia’s background emphasized his connections. Hill’s poll numbers in the district have also suffered in the wake of the scandal and many felt that her “intrusion” into the campaign through her own did not help Smith. 

Smith also made a gaffe when she said something that some have interpreted as mocking Garcia’s military service. The pandemic and existing California state law also meant that the election was largely conducted through mail. Garcia won the election with 54.88% of the vote compared to Smith’s 45.12%.

This has implications for the 2020 election. A key narrative of the 2016 election was that a lot of suburbs that supported Romney voted for Clinton. These suburbs were key swing districts in the 2018 midterms. Garcia’s victory could mean that these districts are at risk for a GOP takeover. This could mean that if Vice President Joe Biden wins the election, he could be forced to rule with reduced political capitol due to a weak hold on the House of Representatives. It could also mean that the Democrat’s race for president itself is at risk since the key swing suburbs are showing signs of reverting back to Republican control. This has implications for the Orange County Democrats, like Rep. Katie Porter, who, like Hill, won purple districts from moderate Republicans. Smith’s loss in a similar district implies that Porter and the other OC Democrats are at risk of losing their seats.

The mail-in ballot that was used also means that if a mail-in system is used, no one party has a clear advantage. Donald Trump has stated that he believes a mail-in system would result in Democratic electoral victories, but this election proves otherwise. If a mail-in system is used, it is unlikely that any one party would have a clear benefit due to higher turnout.

The Republicans must also learn to not rest on their laurels since the election was about finishing Hill’s term. Smith is running again for a rematch in November and many of Garcia’s benefits will no longer be present in November.

Garcia would now have to defend his own political record in Washington to voters. It is also predicted that there will be higher turnout in November due to the regularly scheduled presidential election. This along with the desire to reclaim the seat may drive up Democratic turnout and pose a threat to Garcia’s hold on the district.