Inside Africa: Somalia’s Political Feud Turns A Corner As Discussions Resume Over Elections
WPA Pool / Pool
Somali President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, also known as Farmajo, incited political uproar across the state as he announced he planned on extending his political term two more years.
Somalia, a country greatly weakened by decades of civil war and an insurgency led by radical Islamic al-Qaeda affiliates, is currently experiencing one of its worst political crises in recent years. The election of President Farmajo in 2017 had raised hopes among the population, who saw in him a leader concerned with fighting corruption and combating the emerging threat of al-Shabaab. A former American citizen, the Somali president also appeared promising to foreign aid donors to the state, who have backed his government in an attempt to bring stability to Somalia after experiencing more than two decades as a failed state following the 1991 civil war.
“This is the beginning of the era of the unity, the democracy of Somalia, and the beginning of the fight against corruption,” Mr. Mohamed said after taking his oath of office.
As a state facing a great deal of instability, it’s evident that Somalia is in need of strong leadership, especially given that the government in Mogadishu still only controls a small portion of the country’s territory. The election of Farmajo in 2017 raised hopes that he could set the country on a less corrupt and dysfunctional track, generating some form of state stability that Somalia has not experienced in decades. Yet disillusionment set in as the Farmajo administration silenced critics, expelled top UN officials, and, as of last year, dragged its feel over previously scheduled elections.
President Farmajo’s term expired on February 8 with elections failing to be held. On April 12, the president announced a two-year extension of the presidential term, breaking the Somali constitution and triggering the fury of opposition groups. These groups refused to recognize Farmajo’s authority since his four-year term expired on February 8 without planned presidential and parliamentary elections taking place.
The Somali president attempted to argue that his enemies were trying to shy away from an election and that he now needs two years to bring forward plans for universal suffrage in Somalia. Under the current system, the president is chosen through an indirect, clan-based vote.
Many analysts have labeled this move by Farmajo as a “constitutional coup.”
These tensions led to an armed and violent clash between pro-opposition and government forces in Mogadishu a few weeks ago, leaving three dead. The move effectively ended United Nations-mediated negotiations backed by the United States, including Somalia being met with fierce criticism from the United States and other Western allies.
The situation added fuel to an already combustible political situation that has been simmering in Somalia, threatening to spill over into violence. Recent fighting continues to raise the possibility of dangerous fissures along clan lines inside the Somali military, and the worry that powerful foreign-trained units, including an elite American-funded commando squad, could get sucked in.
The political crisis has resulted in many analysts fearing that al Qaeda-linked affiliates, more specifically al-Shabaab insurgents, would exploit a security vacuum that would emerge if state forces split along clan lines. The group has become an even more evident threat within the region in recent months, as al-Shabaab has taken over at least one Somali town in the past week as heavy-armed fighters moved from the countryside into the capital city.
Other members of the state government, though, soon stepped in to get a hold on the unraveling political situation. Somali lawmakers voted unanimously this past weekend to cancel the president’s two-year extension, with Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble ordering the army to return to the barracks and bring politicians to avoid inciting further violence within the state.
In wake of this emerging violence, Farmajo agreed to resume talks to hold elections as soon as possible, a move that was welcomed by the opposition. In a short broadcasted speech, the president called for a “negotiated solution to the ongoing political act crisis,” abandoning his previous plan of the two-year extension of his presidential term back in April. “We have decided to seek a solution through negotiations and avoid provoking violence for the benefit of those who play with the blood of the people,” noted Farmajo.
The new agreement calls for elections to be held under an indirect system, similarly to the one adopted in 2017, where delegates chosen by multiple clean leaders elect parliamentarians, who then vote for the president.
Somali Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble has been designated with the responsibility with the organization of the elections, acceding to one of the main demands of the opposition to break this political deadlock. “We are determined to hold free, fair, and inclusive elections without anyone being disenfranchised,” noted the Prime Minister, promising to bring stakeholders together “very soon.”
Though a promising progression in terms of upholding democracy in Somalia, the situation should not be dismissed as resolved. The state itself has a great deal of work to do in terms of avoiding political uproar such as this and repairing its domestic institutions. The threat of regional insurgencies lingers, especially as extremist groups such as al Shabaab continue to gain strongholds within the region. It becomes more important now than ever that regional state actors uphold their duties in a free and fair manner, acting as an example for the rest of the regional community. These decisions do not close the door on the threat of political insurgency in weaker state institutions such as Somalia, and accountability becomes more important now than ever in terms of combating emerging political and security threats across the region.