Mideast: The Twelve Day War
In the sleepy midnight hours of Friday, June 13, Israeli missiles shook Iran awake. A barrage of ordnance from Israeli warplanes struck military sites and a nuclear research center. Smaller, targeted strikes also hit private homes of researchers and military leaders in Tehran. Iran hit back hours later with a bombardment of ballistic missiles, most of which were intercepted by Israeli air defenses.
Iran launched over 250 ballistic missiles over the weekend in response, the majority of them aimed at population centers in Tel Aviv and Haifa. The Iron Dome was successful in preventing the worst of the attack, but falling debris still caused many, many casualties. Israelis have been consistently receiving alerts to shelter, and the Jewish nation is on high alert.
The ensuing war lasted until early this week, when US President Donald Trump joined the war with a strike campaign against Iran’s major nuclear sites, and then a post on Truth Social, which declared the war over.
Iranian strikes killed around thirty Israelis and injured several thousand. Israeli strikes killed close to a thousand Iranians and injured several thousand.
Late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, Israel launched the second of four expected waves of attack. Reports from Iran indicated the attack struck the national gas depot in Tehran, exploding and setting fire to the eleven storage tanks present at the site. Israel also struck gas fields, some of the largest in the world, and, according to Israel, experimental nuclear laboratories.
Israeli planes appeared to operate over Syrian and Iraqi airspace, neither nation having effective air radar nor anti-aircraft defense mechanisms. Israel, earlier this year and in late 2024, destroyed the majority of Syrian military infrastructure and weaponry, and has fought to demilitarize the southern region of the country over which they are now operating.
Although Israel and Iran have been attacking one another on and off for years and years, the current eruption of violence was a significant escalation and surprised the international community. President Trump’s Middle East envoy, fellow real estate titan Steve Witkoff, had been negotiating with Iran for weeks and weeks, trying to end Iran’s nuclear development diplomatically. Although the talks were not progressing quickly, their regularity indicated that reasonable efforts were being made by both the US and Iran to achieve a political solution.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offers two primary explanations for launching the attack. Firstly, he claimed that Iran was an imminent nuclear threat. Recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) indicated that Iran was not abiding by international regulations. Iran was certainly enriching Uranium to a level far beyond what is necessary for energy production purposes. Reasonably, Israelis fear that if Iran produced a nuclear weapon, it may be used on the Jewish nation against which Iranian leaders regularly incite violence.
Netanyahu’s other motivation is to destroy the Iranian regime entirely. The Islamic Republic is a sworn enemy of Israel, and the Republic’s leaders have made it their mission to wreak havoc on Israel. Over the last decade, Iran has built an Axis of Resistance composed of non-state militias across the Middle East. These groups fight for Iran’s interests either due to a shared Shia identity, financial incentives, or a combination of both. Hamas, Hezbollah, and Ansar Allah (Houthi) are all part of this alliance. Israel believes that destabilizing Iran, eliminating their economic engines, and decapitating their military leadership make Israel a safer place. Undoubtedly, this is true, at least in the short term.
However, the distinction between the two reasons does have many implications. The chief implication is in the justification of lethal attacks. Preemptive strikes can be allowed in international laws of war, but preventative strikes are not. Thus, if Israel has reason to believe that Iran is weaponizing refined uranium and is threatening it with nuclear weaponry, destroying Iranian nuclear capacity is warranted. However, if it is to prevent Iran from ever having the power to threaten Israel, that is simply preventative, and it is far more challenging to justify the use of lethal force.
Both of Netanyahu’s goals in Iran can be summed up with one encompassing goal: regional hegemony. Israel boasts an elite military, a fruitful and innovative economy, and a stable civil society. Its ability to maneuver in the Middle East and broker favorable agreements is nigh unmatched. Its friendliness with Europe and the US also legitimizes its role as a regional great power. Iran threatens them.
Iran has close relationships with China and Russia. While the Iranian military is not as technologically advanced as Israel’s, it is massive and strong. Iran also flexes its mighty geopolitical power by supporting non-state militias across the region. Iranian oil is essential globally. However, Iran is not a nuclear power. Should Iran achieve nuclearization, Israel would be forced to engage them differently as the US and Russia must confront one another tacitly. Furthermore, when the Islamic Republic is stable, it demonstrates a polar opposite yet still legitimate presence in the Middle East.
There are other regional rivals to Israel in the Middle East. Turkey and the Gulf states are all wealthy and powerful militarily; however, none of them are racing toward nuclearization, and they are all friendlier with the West. An Israeli campaign in Turkey would be seen the world over as a shocking and unprovoked aggression by Israel. However, Israel can pummel Iran with abandon as world leaders wag their fingers publicly, talk of “peace in the Middle East,” and relievedly sigh behind closed doors to see Iran disheveled.
The outcome of this latest eruption of violence is still unknown. After the first strikes, the conversation became about whether the US would join Israel’s campaign. The US joined the strike campaign one week after Israel’s attacks. On Sunday, June 22, Trump ordered a fleet of B-2s to fly into Iranian airspace and drop fourteen 30,000 lb bombs capable of penetrating deep into the Earth. The strikes targeted Iran’s three major nuclear enrichment sites.
On Monday evening, Iran launched a pitiful response. Iranian missiles and drones targeted US bases in Qatar and Iraq. Iran had given both countries a warning that the strikes were coming, and, as such, they were easily intercepted, and no Americans were hurt. Iran’s timid response indicated their desire to de-escalate while appearing to have hit back.
Now, a US-brokered ceasefire is in place. Neither Iran nor Israel is in a rush to abide by it, however, it does indicate reduced hostilities moving forward.
PM Netanyahu must reexamine what is worth sacrificing for regional hegemony. How many neighboring nations does he have to destroy to achieve the stability he says he craves?
Ayatollah Khamenei must reexamine what is worth sacrificing for nuclearization and enmity with Israel. How many Iranians have to die before Iran accepts defeat in their zealous anti-Israel campaign?
The lives of millions of people and the safety of an essential global region rely on the decision-making abilities of three infamously unpredictable men: PM Netanyahu, Ayatollah Khamenei, and US President Trump. For the world’s innocents, may the ceasefire hold.
