Desert Power: How China’s Solar Farms Are Reshaping Its Energy Landscape
Taklamakan Desert, Xinjiang, China – The one-year inauguration of the world’s largest solar farm marks yet another milestone for Chinese renewable energy. Coming online nearly a year ago to date, the Xinjiang solar plant has produced an estimated 6.09 billion kilowatt hours of electricity, enough to power every home in San Francisco, Boston, and Washington D.C. combined. The Xinjiang plant is not alone. Rapid construction of photovoltaic (PV) solar projects across China’s largely arid northern and western provinces has skyrocketed China to certify itself as the world leader in solar energy production – head and shoulders above its competition in the west. Domestically, the solar initiative has created a competitive market between renewable and fossil fuel based energy production, sparking further investment into China’s renewable sector as the returns are increasingly reliable. Globally, the stark rise in construction of solar plants, and their subsequent success, has left the United States and European Union grappling for solar investment to keep up. Across China’s deserts, solar farms have helped stabilize shifting sand dunes to impede desertification, enabling ecological restoration and encouraging vegetation growth, while simultaneously generating economic opportunities in some of the country's most historically neglected regions. Not all in the surge of solar activity has unfolded with unmitigated success however. Increased market rivalry from the solar energy sector has forced investors in fossil fuels to double down on their commitment to stay competitive, incentivizing new coal, oil, and natural gas plants to begin construction at an alarming rate. China, still the world’s largest carbon emitter, a title it’s held for over 20 years, has shown no signs of slowing, far exceeding its pre-pandemic emission levels with nearly 16 billion metric tons of carbon being emitted into the atmosphere – more than the U.S., E.U., Russia, and India combined in 2023. 2 steps forward, 1 step back, this is the story of China’s complex march toward a greener future.
Across the autonomous regions of Tibet and Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia and Qinghai provinces, solar construction projects have doubled China’s solar electric generating capacity from 2021 t0 2023. An estimate of around 610 kilowatt hours of purely solar generated energy in 2023, up from roughly 307 kilowatt hours in 2021.
Solar Generation Capacity in kWH 2017-2023
Tax incentives from Beijing, generous government subsidies, and rapid technological advancements have significantly accelerated investment in Chinese solar energy over the past decade. Ambitious cost-reduction targets set by industry leaders have driven major breakthroughs, most notably in bifacial solar cells and Passivated Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC) technology. PERC enhances solar cell performance by adding a passivation layer to the rear side of the panel, minimizing electron loss, and incorporating a reflective layer that bounces unabsorbed sunlight back into the silicon wafer, the bottom of the solar panel, boosting overall efficiency. This efficiency, coupled with incentivized initiatives from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has made solar a worthwhile investment in China, while it remains a risky expenditure in other parts of the world. Even looking at data from just last year, we can see the standard price (in USD) of the Chinese made TOPCon M10 cell in its production of 100 watts per hour.
FOB China TOPCon M10 Cell, $/100Wp
Falling nearly 2/5ths of the price in just 3 months is an economic achievement for any product. With most projections indicating a further price reduction in solar, investment in the industry is surely set to grow, allowing for more construction and research.
China’s long-standing dilemma of the advance of the Gobi and Taklamakan Deserts into more southern and eastern provinces has only been worsened by continuously warmer temperatures, making vegetation and crops increasingly more difficult to grow in borderland regions. With the introduction of large-scale solar farms, many of which cover tens of thousands of acres, a dual-use model to curb desertification has begun taking shape. Solar panels, many of which can exceed 10 feet in height, act as physical barriers which prevent the movement of sand, reduce the intensity of sandstorms, and anchor existing dunes in place. Shade provided by the vast arrays of solar panels limits evaporation from soil and cools ground temperatures, creating better conditions to germinate and grow vegetation and even crops. Solar arrays which double as crop fields between rows of panels, known as agrivoltaic projects, in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia specifically, are being used to grow native fruits and vegetables. Improved soil conditions have also allowed for grass seeding beneath solar panels in areas that were previously too arid. This practice prevents soil erosion and rebuilds topsoil, key for future crop growth. Construction of solar farms and their subsequent crop fields has given way to economic opportunities in China’s more rural and impoverished provinces and autonomous territories.
Despite notable advancements in solar and other renewable energy sources, China’s energy production is still comprised of nearly 63% fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas. While solar and wind farms coming online in the past five years have slightly cut the energy demand from fossil fuel based plants, they have also cut the demand from other clean sources of energy like nuclear, hydroelectric power, and various forms of bioenergy. Increased market competition in the power sector has reinvigorated fossil fuel giants to invest heavily in coal. In 2024 alone, just shy of 100 coal fired power plants began or resumed construction, while the U.S. hasn’t opened a major coal power plant since 2013 (Sandy Creek Energy Station, TX). The rest of the world is phasing out coal, or at the minimum phasing down coal, yet China is stuck in an internal battle over power dynamics between its largest energy corporations. China currently accounts for roughly 95% of new coal construction, and with each passing year, data indicates that the rise of solar energy will not directly cut coal, oil, or natural gas production.
2 steps forward, 1 step back. China’s road to a sustainable energy sector is undoubtedly more feasible with new solar infrastructure. However, reliance on coal and internal competition will continue to plague efforts to transition the industry if left untouched by Beijing and the CCP.
