Far East: Japan's Drone Defense Declaration Raises Stakes in Senkaku Islands Dispute

JAPAN POOL/AFP

Japan, a country consisting of well over 6,800 islands, has encountered geopolitical issues multiple times throughout its history. Therefore, many could say that the country is no stranger to it, after all, the country is still plagued with many geopolitical issues from the Dokdo Islands dispute with South Korea to the Kuril Islands dispute with Russia. However, none of them are as concerning as the Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu in China) dispute.

The island’s strategic location along key maritime routes has proven invaluable to the surrounding countries, including Japan (as part of Okinawa Prefecture), Taiwan (as part of Yilan County), and China, which claims sovereignty over both Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands.

Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, Japan has adopted a more defensive stance, asserting its right to shoot down any foreign drones that violate its airspace. This has been driven by the exponential influx of Chinese drones over the skies near the Senkaku Islands. While this move could be seen as Tokyo’s intent to assert a firmer grip on its East China Sea archipelago geopolitical issue, the implication from this announcement could have a far-reaching impact across the region and globally.

What is the context?

Tracing back to the early ages of history, the Senkaku Island was an uninhabited, unnamed island used as a means of navigation to guide trading ships between China and the Ryukyu Kingdom, present-day Okinawa Prefecture of Japan. The island was first described in 1785 in a Japanese book, which identified it as part of the Ryukyu Kingdom. However, the book presented conflicting context by labeling the island with Chinese names and using the same pink color as China on its map.

As it was used as a navigational marker, the island was never subjected to any kind of administrative control, up until 1895 when the Japanese government incorporated the islands into its Okinawa Prefecture during the First Sino-Japanese War. The island was then used as a fish processing plant with over 200 workers on the island at one point. Following Japan’s surrender in World War II, the islands came under the control of the U.S. government. Under the Okinawa Reversion Treaty, passed by the U.S. Senate in 1971, the United States agreed to return the islands to Japan along with Okinawa.

Meanwhile, given the island's strategic location in the East China Sea, Taiwan has laid a historical claim to the Senkaku Islands, citing fishing activities and mapping records dating back to the Ming dynasty. China also lays claim to the island as part of its claim on Taiwan. Of the three claimants, China appears the most assertive in pursuing its claim over the islands, having deployed drones and naval frigates in the surrounding waters.

In 2024, Japan chased out over 704 aircraft entering its airspace. Those aircraft were either Chinese or Russian, and over 30 of them were Chinese-made drones entering the areas surrounding the Senkaku Islands. At one point, it seemed as though China was testing Japan’s temper and resolve.

As a final provocation leading up to Tokyo’s announcement, China was reportedly developing a large-scale unmanned aircraft known as the Jiutian, capable of carrying up to 100 suicide drones and boasting an operational range of over 7,000 kilometers.

What does the announcement entail?

Tokyo’s response to the reports on the Chinese Jiutian comes with a definition on the scope of Japan’s Act on the Prohibition of Flight of Drones Over Key Facilities. The act explicitly mentions the full-pledge coverage on certain locations such as the Imperial Palace, the Prime Minister’s Residence, and SDF bases. The intriguing aspect of the announcement lies in its wording: the act defines 'necessary measures' to explicitly include the authority to shoot down drones. However, the specific circumstances under which these 'necessary measures' would be applied were not detailed. This effectively grants Japan’s Self-Defense Forces the authority to shoot down any foreign drones entering its airspace without the need for further justification.

Although this is not a new policy shift and rather more of a public affirmation of existing rules and practices already in motion, Japan is making a statement. A country that has weathered many geopolitical storms and realized its own importance on the regional and international stage, Japan seems not to take 30 Chinese drones lightly. 

This response, however, may lead to an unusual and rather concerning side effect. Many analysts have now warned that Beijing may simply send more drones into the contested area, just to test Japan’s resolve on the issue. If a confrontation does occur, China may dismiss the Japanese action as overly aggressive, as in cases prior with the Chinese coast guard ship sailing into Japan’s waters.

Given the current tense situation, Japan and its security partners, such as the United States, may need to pursue a more robust security dialogue to ensure airspace integrity. Japan is also reportedly developing directed-energy weapons and an expanded anti-drone arsenal, which could shift the diplomatic balance in the region. Until then, the situation surrounding this uninhabited island is likely to remain volatile, with multiple stakeholders closely monitoring its strategic value.