Far East: Will The Fragile Thai–Cambodian Border Ceasefire Survive After Deadly Clashes?

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The situation along the Thai–Cambodian border is best described as a fragile ceasefire built on broken promises to the people. After a long and continuous military operation conducted by both sides, Bangkok and Phnom Penh each blamed the other for being responsible for attacking first. As residents in border towns are told to relocate, a ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia, acting as the ASEAN chair, with observations conducted by the Chinese and American diplomatic officials. Regardless of the ceasefire, however, tensions still run strong amid the background of heightened nationalism and post-conflict recovery.

With stimulus packages offered to those affected by the conflict and social media fueling hostility between people on both sides, it’s hard to say whether peace is truly near. The honest answer: we don’t know.

A Fragile Ceasefire

Thailand and Cambodia have been conducting military operations along their respective border since May 2025, stemming from a standoff in the Chong Bok region earlier this year. The conflict has since escalated into war-like operations with Thailand deploying its F-16 air strikers and Cambodia launching airstrikes at Thai border towns. Up to the time this article was written, dozens of casualties were reported from both Bangkok and Phnom Penh and over 300,000 were displaced. One of the most tragic incidents was when a rocket strike bombed a Thai convenience store where over 8 people were killed instantly from the blast, including a woman and her two children in the store buying snacks.

After weeks of fighting, an unconditional ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia, acting as the ASEAN chair, with observations from the Chinese and American officials to ensure mutual agreement in Putrajaya, Malaysia. The first round of the General Border Committee later followed in Kuala Lumpur on August 4th in hopes of formally institutionalizing the truce and implementing proper ASEAN-backed monitoring protocols.

Although the violence has largely subsided, both sides have violated the ceasefire they had earlier agreed upon. Thailand has since alleged that Cambodian forces used barbed wire and heavy machinery in disputed areas, while Cambodia accused Thailand of carrying out excavations deep inside its territory.

In post-conflict recovery, the Thai government have released a stimulus package, accumulating over $572 million to compensate for the victims and the injured, including over 10 million baht (around $308,000) per deceased military and civilian officials and 8 million baht (around $247,180) per deceased citizen.

Massive External Pressure

Ever since the conflict broke out, the pressure is on from the international community to both nations, with even the U.S. President Donald Trump personally intervening, threatening both nations that their trade talks will be halted and their respective tariffs will be implemented without negotiations should both Thailand and Cambodia continue fighting without a ceasefire. As both sides later agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, the trade talks resumed and Thailand’s tariffs got reduced to 19% from 36% while Cambodia also got 19% from 49%

Other than the intervention from the U.S., major powers such as China, France, the European Union, Australia, Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.K. have all issued statements urging both parties in the conflict to de-escalate immediately and peacefully.

Out of all the international bodies, Malaysia seems to be involved the most, from brokering the unconditional ceasefire to implementing ASEAN de-escalation procedures, acting as the ASEAN chair itself. Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has been contacting both nations to de-escalate since May 2025, as the call between the two countries was leaked and later transformed into a full-blown military operation. The ASEAN Foreign Ministers have also issued a unanimous statement expressing deep concern with hopes for peaceful bilateral talks.

This conflict marks a major turning point for ASEAN, as the union was meant to preserve peace in a region that has witnessed brutal colonization and war crimes in the past. The conflict is one of the most serious the region has ever seen in decades. Some analysts have noted, however, that the ASEAN response has been utmost limited. Allowing the greater powers, such as the U.S and China, to influence the regional conflict

Other than the pressure from the international community, the greatest amount of pressure came from the people on both sides of the border.

An Undying Internal Pressure

Ever since the conflict broke out, both Thailand and Cambodia have witnessed a massive surge in nationalism on a scale that hasn't been seen in years. Both sides took to social media to spread fake news, offensive posts and memes, as well as openly discussing hate speech towards each other.

Thailand, as a nation, however, has always been a nationalistic nation. The country’s long obsession with its unique cultural values has led to multiple protests throughout the years. As the situation worsened, a protest broke out in Bangkok, demanding that the administration step down and voicing genuine public discontent with the government’s handling of the situation. Other than voicing hate speech towards the Cambodians, Thai people have also expressed dismay at their government since the leaked call between PM Paetongtarn and Cambodia’s Samdech Hun Sen in June.

Meanwhile, across the border, the Cambodian public has widely agreed upon the narrative frame which Cambodia is a victim of the premeditated Thai aggression. As the same as in Thailand, Cambodia has witnessed a sharp increase in its nationalistic sentiment. In sharp contrast to the domestic Cambodians, however, are the Cambodians who are residing and working in Thailand.

For decades, Cambodian citizens have migrated to Thailand to find new job opportunities and have integrated well into Thai society—until now. Rat, a Cambodian who has migrated to Thailand to work for over 13 years, has expressed concerns about raising her family in a country that seems not to want people from her background. She mentioned that she has told her 3 children to skip school and stay home, afraid of hate speech and discrimination her children may face in a school full of Thai kids. “My relatives told me that they are worried about us and that they want us to go back (to Cambodia), but I said that I will wait and see the situation, if it does not improve, then I may go home”, Rat said. She also later added that she does not want to go back to Cambodia, “as long as the Thai people are not driving me off, I am not going back.”

Rat’s fears are not the byproduct of paranoia, unfortunately. Ever since the conflict broke out, reports have surged of Cambodians being harassed, disrupted at work, or even physically attacked.

There are over 300,000-400,000 Cambodians currently residing in Thailand, most of them work in labor-intensive sectors, varying from agriculture, production, construction, to general service providers. To many of them, Thailand offers job opportunities that Cambodia couldn’t offer and gives them a fair shot at making a living. This is one of the reasons many Cambodians are not willing to relocate back to Cambodia, citing financial and occupational reasons.

With the conflict now at a standstill and both sides still accusing the other of aggression, with the ASEAN diplomacy being put to the test in the background, it is very difficult to tell now how this conflict will end, or even worse, how. However, one thing is certain: everyone wants this conflict to be over in a region torn by war and loss for the past century.