European Central: What Does Poland’s New President bode For Its Future?
Jakub Porzycki/Reuters Connect
On June 1, Poland concluded its presidential election by electing Karol Nawrocki, a nationalist historian backed by the right-wing conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. Winning by an exceedingly thin margin, Nawrocki has a lot of issues on his plate.
He comes into power at a crucial point for both Poland and Europe. Increasing polarization has fueled the rise of the far-right across the continent. The war in Ukraine drags on, and now he has to compete with Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ruling coalition, even as it looks increasingly fragile.
Without political experience, Nawrocki has both big plans to implement and big challenges to overcome. As he steps into his new role, what does his election spell for the next five years of Poland’s future?
Consuls At Odds And Impasse
The last three years of Polish politics have been a story of stalled reform. Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his coalition came into power in 2023 after 8 years of PiS leadership. This period was marked by, as Politico described it, Poland “dallying as an illiberal democracy”.
Judicial reforms that hamstrung the judiciary, attacks on independent media, and extremely restrictive abortion rules, along with consolidating government positions under PiS, all came together to raise alarms across Europe. This eventually led the EU to launch Article 7 proceedings against Poland and freeze billions in EU funding for the nation.
Tusk has spent the last few years trying to undo the damage done by the PiS party, with limited success. While he has implemented some reforms that satisfied the EU’s concerns and freed upwards of €137 billion in EU funds, along with popular hikes in defense spending, many of his reforms were blocked by outgoing president Andrzej Duda, a PiS member.
For context, the Polish president has limited executive power but does have pardon and veto power, something that Duda used extensively to halt Tusk’s liberalizing reforms and to pardon PiS politicians. That baton of vetoing liberal reforms is now being picked up by Nawrocki, who has pledged to oppose illegal migration, legal recognition of same-sex relationships, and liberalized abortion laws.
With Tusk’s coalition lacking the parliamentary majority needed to overturn a veto, and having just narrowly survived a confidence vote on June 11, Tusk may have to temper some of his more liberal reforms moving forward. “We cannot close our eyes to reality,” Tusk said after the vote. “A president who was reluctant to accept the changes we proposed for Poland and our voters is being replaced by a president who is at least equally reluctant to those changes and proposals.”
A Polarized Poland
While the reforms promised by Tusk are likely to face obstacles, Nawrocki’s election is also poised to deepen another troubling trend: the growing polarization of Polish society. For that same address that Tusk gave on June 11, half of the parliament hall was empty, with members of PiS boycotting the speech.
Nawrocki’s election win was in part powered by far-right support, with Nawrocki in May signing an eight-point list of demands written by far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen in May in exchange for Mentzen’s support. The points included opposing tax hikes and the European Green Deal, and rejecting Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Issues like these have split Poland’s electorate. According to political scientist Artur Roland Kozłowski, around 60% of voters align with one of the two main parties, the pro-EU KO and anti-EU PiS. But the other 40% are looking for alternatives, and some of the extreme options, like far-right MEP Grzegorz Braun, are gaining support, with Braun having placed fourth with 6.34% of the vote in the presidential election.
Braun is incredibly controversial, having destroyed an exhibition promoting LGBTQIA+ equality in parliament in May and extinguished Hanukkah candles in parliament with a fire extinguisher in 2023. The fact that he garnered so much support, and that a nationalist has become president, is a sign that the far-right has momentum.
For the moment, while Tusk’s coalition faces an uphill battle, it still enjoys a relatively passable approval rating of 39.3% as of late 2024, and has announced that investments in Poland will exceed PLN 650 billion this year and possibly reach PLN 700 billion, which would be a record.
This, paired with infrastructure investment, tax cuts, and deregulation, may win Tusk’s government some wiggle room. But the latter two pledges imply a rightward shift in its economic policy, which could be a gamble to lure some centrist and right-leaning voters away from the far-right.
Now, Nawrocki has pledged to "build a Poland for everyone" and “tear down walls of hatred” between citizens, but with political deadlock looking likely and Konfederacja, a far-right party, being the most popular among young voters, people will begin looking to the extremes to tackle the issues at hand.
A New Power Broker In Europe
As one of the fastest-growing economies and the current President of the Council of the European Union (until June 30), Poland has recently enjoyed a truly rejuvenated presence on the European stage. It has also led the way as NATO’s defense spending leader, with 4% of its GDP spent on defense in 2024 and plans to reach 4.7% in 2025.
But Nawrocki’s election also raises questions about Europe’s geopolitics. While the President has limited foreign and defense policy impact, he does have some influence.
Nawrocki’s foreign agenda is EU-skeptic on most issues. His opposition to the European Green Deal and illegal immigration will likely clash with his fellow European leaders’ plans. Additionally, Nawrocki is eager to blame Brussels for violating Poland’s sovereignty, and has declared that, “[he] will be a president who will not agree, … for the European Union to be a quasi-state, and for Poles in ten years to be citizens of the European Union of Polish origin”.
However, Nawrocki aligns with many on his defense agenda. While Nawrocki will likely push back against deeper European integration, he has supported continued military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. However, he is against Ukraine joining NATO, and has at times backed reducing support for Ukrainian refugees.
Poland is no stranger to Russian aggression, having a long and fraught history of conflict. However, it also has a history with Germany and the rest of the West. Caught between a hostile neighbor in Russia and, at times, a dismissive group of neighbors in Western Europe, Poland now looks to navigate geopolitics without aligning entirely with one side or the other.
Poland has also looked to the United States for partnership, with Nawrocki prioritizing a strong alliance with Washington. However, it may also choose to align more closely with the bloc of less-liberal European governments. Many far-right leaders in Europe have enthused over Nawrocki’s election, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban saying it will strengthen the work of the Visegrad Group, the political alliance of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
The degree to which Poland becomes the de facto leader of Europe’s far-right governments is still unknown, but its potential to wield its political, economic, and military influence in pursuit of right-wing goals at home and abroad is certainly notable. For now, Nawrocki faces a deeply complicated situation to navigate, but his presidency will certainly be one that fellow European leaders will be actively including in Europe’s politics going forward.
A Polarized Poland
So the reforms promised by Tusk are likely to be hampered, but there is another trend that Nawrocki’s election is likely to exacerbate: the polarization of Polish society. For that same address that Tusk gave on June 11, half of the parliament hall was empty, with members of PiS boycotting the speech.
Nawrocki’s election win was in part powered by far-right support, with Nawrocki in May signing an eight-point list of demands written by far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen in May in exchange for Mentzen’s support. The points included opposing tax hikes and the European Green Deal, and rejecting Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Issues like these have split Poland’s electorate. According to political scientist Artur Roland Kozłowski of WSB Merito University, around 60% of voters align with one of the two main parties, the pro-EU KO and anti-EU PiS. But the other 40% are looking for alternatives, and some of the extreme options, like far-right MEP Grzegorz Braun, are gaining support, with Braun having placed fourth with 6.34% of the vote in the presidential election.
Braun is incredibly controversial, having destroyed an exhibition promoting LGBTQ+ equality in parliament in May and extinguished Hanukkah candles in parliament with a fire extinguisher in 2023. The fact that he garnered so much support, and that a nationalist has become president, is a sign that the far-right has the momentum.
For the moment, while Tusk’s coalition faces an uphill battle, it still enjoys a relatively passable approval rating of 39.3% as of late 2024 and has announced that investments in Poland will exceed PLN 650 billion this year and possibly reach PLN 700 billion, which would be a record.
This, paired with infrastructure investment, tax cuts, and deregulation, may win Tusk’s government some wiggle room. But the latter two pledges imply a rightward shift in its economic policy, which could be a gamble to lure some centrist and right-leaning voters away from the far-right.
Now, Nawrocki has pledged to "build a Poland for everyone" and “tear down walls of hatred” between citizens, but with political deadlock looking likely and Konfederacja, a far-right party, being the most popular among young voters, people will begin looking to the extremes to tackle the issues at hand.
A New Power Broker In Europe
As one of the fastest-growing economies and the current President of the Council of the European Union (until June 30), Poland has recently enjoyed a truly rejuvenated presence on the European stage. It has also led the way as NATO’s defense spending leader, with 4% of its GDP spent on defense in 2024 and plans to reach 4.7% in 2025.
But Nawrocki’s election also raises questions about Europe’s geopolitics. While the President has limited foreign and defense policy impact, he does have some influence.
Nawrocki’s foreign agenda is EU-skeptic on most issues. His opposition to the European Green Deal and illegal immigration will likely clash with his fellow European leaders’ plans. Additionally, Nawrocki is eager to blame Brussels for violating Poland’s sovereignty, and has declared that, “[he] will be a president who will not agree, … for the European Union to be a quasi-state, and for Poles in ten years to be citizens of the European Union of Polish origin”.
However, Nawrocki aligns with many on his defense agenda. While Nawrocki will likely push back against deeper European integration, he has supported continued military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. However, he is against Ukraine joining NATO, and has at times backed reducing support for Ukrainian refugees.
Poland is no stranger to Russian aggression, having a long and fraught history of conflict. However, it also has a history with Germany and the rest of the West. Caught between a hostile neighbor in Russia and, at times, a dismissive group of neighbors in Western Europe, Poland now looks to navigate geopolitics without aligning entirely with one side or the other.
It has also looked towards the United States for partnership, with Nawrocki prioritizing an alliance with the United States. But another route it could take is to take the lead of the less-liberal European governments. Many far-right leaders in Europe have enthused over Nawrocki’s election, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban saying it will strengthen the work of the Visegrad Group, the political alliance of Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia.
The degree to which Poland becomes the de facto leader of Europe’s far-right governments is still unknown, but its potential to wield its political, economic, and military influence in pursuit of right-wing goals at home and abroad is certainly notable. For now, Nawrocki faces a deeply complicated situation to navigate, but his presidency will certainly be one that fellow European leaders will be actively including in Europe’s politics going forward.
