European Central: Denmark Takes The EU's Reins. What are they bringing from the "Danish Model"?
Christian Lue
As Denmark took the reins of the EU Presidency for the next six months, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen laid out her main priorities succinctly in her opening speech. Cutting straight to business, she identified the three key areas her presidency would target: military security, economic growth, and immigration control.
“Right now, Europe is facing the greatest challenges since the 1940s,” she said, and as she and her nation rise to the position of “honest broker” amongst the EU’s many factions, those challenges arise from both within and without. Frederiksen brings from Denmark policies that are gaining steam in Europe, namely, strong social welfare policies combined with strict migration controls.
Denmark now has the chance to take the policies it has enacted on the national level and apply them to the EU. But how effective have those policies been, and how scalable are they?
Danish Defense And The End Of The Peace Dividend
Denmark’s stance on defense used to be an independent one. In 1992, Danish voters narrowly rejected the Treaty of Maastricht, forcing a compromise that allowed Denmark to opt out of EU policies regarding defense, citizenship, justice, and the monetary union.
It wasn’t until the Russian invasion that the Danes voted to drop their 30-year-long EU defense opt-out. Since then, Denmark has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest backers, having given more money than nations like Romania, Belgium, and Poland. Besides EU funds, Denmark has personally given about 9.9 billion euros in military and civilian funding.
Between providing satellite services to Ukraine and recently signing an agreement to help build Ukrainian defense companies in Denmark, Ukraine’s security is a top priority for Frederiksen. Additionally, spending on Denmark’s own military has been rising steadily, with an agreement in February pledging around 50 billion Danish krone (about $7 billion) in 2025 and 2026 and putting Denmark’s defense spending at 3% of GDP, well above NATO’s current 2% goal.
But EU-wide defense is another beast. NATO recently agreed to spend 5% GDP annually on defense spending by 2035. Most of this funding is likely to be facilitated by a pair of initiatives. First is the European Defence Industry Programme, which is a stop-gap budget framework dedicating €1.5 billion annually.
This program is most certainly going to either grow or be upgraded under Denmark’s leadership, especially because the EU’s next seven-year, €1.2 trillion budget is set to be presented in July. With defense spending popular at the moment, Denmark will likely be active in facilitating increased military aid from the EU’s budget.
The other initiative is the €150 billion Security Action for Europe regulation, a loan program designed to help European nations make joint purchases. Both of these initiatives fall under Europe’s Readiness 2030 plan, unveiled by Commission President von der Leyen earlier this year. Momentum is on Denmark’s side, but even it knows that these goals are a “huge, huge challenge” to reach, as Danish Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen put it.
But to Frederiksen, security also encompasses other issues such as energy and migration. So far, her push has begun with tying energy goals to defense goals. “Climate change is about defense,” said Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s climate and energy minister. “Europe’s strategic autonomy is threatened, and it’s threatened partly because we are so extremely dependent on the import of fossil fuels.”
Giving Europe’s Economy The “Green Light”
Frederiksen has experience with balancing environmentalism and the economy. Last year, Denmark ranked first in Europe’s 2024 Green Transition Index while being one of the heaviest-regulated countries in Europe.
Frederiksen has emphasized the potential of pairing environmental protection and economic growth, saying that “Europe must continue to push for the green transition” while still seeking “ambitious 2040 climate targets.” But recent Europe-wide environmental moves have been watered down by myriad European leaders, setting a rocky path forward for Denmark.
In June, the European Commission amended its 2040 EU climate target to soften its 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to levels seen in 1990. The amendment included international CO2 credits for the first time, something scientists have warned against, with the hope that it would create investment certainty for industries. Additionally, a POLITICO survey in May found that only a fifth of countries back a hard target of 90 percent.
European automakers also managed to successfully make the EC give in regarding 2023 legislation mandating 100 percent zero-emission vehicle sales starting in 2035. While climate action is still a popular policy, it seems the balancing act between climate action and economic growth has tipped in businesses’ favor.
Reducing regulations has become a bit of a trend in European politics and runs counter to Denmark’s model. The Commission has already prioritized simplifying regulation and reducing administrative burden. Germany's Friedrich Merz, Italy's Giorgia Meloni, and Poland's Donald Tusk all have voiced support for repealing some environmental laws entirely.
There is, however, one area of green economics that Denmark comes to the table well-versed in: agricultural policy. Denmark was the first in the EU to set a carbon tax on agriculture in 2024, and it may be able to bring those skills to Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy and negotiations on simplifying the EU’s agriculture funding rules. The stakes are high, however, as European farmers are no strangers to protests when things aren’t going their way.
A Europe For Europeans
One area that Denmark may find far more support in is migration. Across Europe, far-right governments have gained traction by capitalizing on anti-migrant sentiments. While it is true that xenophobia and racism likely play a part in this, Denmark has made the case that migration’s costs fall overwhelmingly on the poor by stressing the nation’s famed social welfare services alongside challenging social cohesion.
More recently, Denmark admitted a record-low number of asylum seekers last year. Perhaps Denmark’s most controversial policies began in 2018 when the social democrats launched the “Ghetto Package,” aimed at displacing and removing citizens in immigrant-heavy neighborhoods to aid in their assimilation, much to the concern of humanitarian groups. In addition, Denmark was the first to attempt to send asylum seekers to third countries like Rwanda, but that policy was paused.
Frederiksen has had room to experiment with harsher migration policies, in large part because of the opt-outs negotiated after the Maastricht treaty. Coming to the European stage, Denmark is bringing a case study in harsh migration policies, and this momentum means that Denmark will have more power in pushing for return hubs, centers outside of EU borders, designed to hold migrants either seeking entry or waiting to be deported.
In May, Denmark also led the way in calling for the EU to revise its interpretation of the European Convention on Human Rights. It also already has a €200 million deal to send 300 foreign convicts to a Kosovo prison before deportation. With a hardline immigration platform in the presidency, it seems that fellow European hardliners will have an ally in Denmark for the next six months.
The real question for all of Denmark’s policies stems from the makeup of the European Parliament. Center-right Parliament members recently blocked an effort to blunt far-right control over 2040 climate target discussions, which could mean that while Denmark may find success in its migration policies on the right, any support for its climate policies may be hamstrung.
Center-right and conservative groups make up 407 of the 720 seats, and while they are not aligned on all issues and don’t have a blocking majority, Denmark will likely have to placate the right on all fronts. For the next six months, Frederiksen will be spending a lot of time shaking a lot of hands in order to get her agenda through.
