European Central: The AfD Is Facing A Potential Ban From Politics. It May Not Be Enough
For a far-right party under federal surveillance, facing a potential ban from politics, and battling a firewall of other political parties refusing to work with them, leaders of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) aren’t exactly worried. Far-right essayist Goetz Kubitschek, who is a close friend of the head of the AfD’s extremist wing, recently said on his podcast that he "[doesn’t] understand why a party polling at 20% should change its agenda."
In recent months, the AfD has had to battle uphill through lawsuits and an extremist designation from Germany’s spy agency. Despite a historically good showing in the February election, garnering 20.8% of the vote and making it the second-strongest party, the AfD now faces rising calls for a ban on the party.
However, recent legal wins for the AfD and favorable polling indicate that the party may be here to stay. Now, every other political force in Germany is weighing the merits of a ban and trying to determine if there is another way to stave off the resurgence of the far right in Germany.
Smoke Through The Firewall
The German firewall is, in essence, a pledge by every mainstream political party in Germany not to work with the AfD in government. This has been upheld by German politicians ever since the end of World War II, and the AfD’s platform of extreme anti-immigrant policies (including the controversial “remigration” of immigrants and foreigners), staunch nationalism, and vehemently conservative social policies is the latest test of the firewall.
However, the recent election catapulted the AfD into a powerful position, and recent polls indicate their popularity is growing, reaching up to 24%, a mere three points behind the leading Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
A string of small legal wins has bolstered the AfD’s growth. In June, a court lifted a ban on a far-right magazine that a judge had previously ruled was too racist towards minorities. The decision allows the magazine to be published, and it can’t be appealed.
Another win for the AfD has been the halting of its extremist designation as proceedings continue, days after it was announced. Even though the designation is merely halted instead of rescinded, similar to a TRO in the United States, the AfD has celebrated the standstill order as evidence that the party is not, in fact, extremist.
For the moment, German Chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz has said that his party will 'never' work with the far-right, but he has faced criticism for forwarding an AfD-backed motion for a stricter migration policy, showcasing just how much political clout the party has gained.
This rapid ascent has sparked widespread alarm in Germany, and after a report by Germany’s spy agency following surveillance of the party since 2021 designated the AfD as extremist, calls for a ban are louder than ever, as the CDU’s junior coalition partner unanimously voted to examine outlawing the AfD.
According to some polls, 61% of Germans agreed with the extremist designation of the AfD, with 48% supporting a ban. Protests have even been held to disrupt interviews with AfD leaders.
However, instituting a ban is a long and complicated process. According to Article 21 of the German constitution, to require a ban, a political party has to check two boxes.
First, it has to be found to be working against Germany’s free democratic order in an “actively belligerent, aggressive stance.” It also has to pose a real threat to democracy in terms of its popularity and influence.
If a petition is initiated by the Bundestag or another branch, a long legal process would begin, which could result in a ban if the Federal Constitutional Court deems it necessary. But there are questions as to how much of a threat the AfD poses to democracy if the “extremist” designation falls away
It is important to note that most attempts to ban a German party have failed. The only successful examples are in 1952, with the neo-Nazi Socialist Reich Party, and four years later, with the first German Communist Party.
There were attempts in 2003, 2016, and 2021 to ban the neo-Nazi National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD), all without success. In 2017, a court even acknowledged the party was unconstitutional, but it decided the party was not a constitutional threat.
Even without all the logistical hurdles, many officials are skeptical about a ban, with the German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt saying that he was “convinced that the AfD does not need to be banned, it needs to be governed away” by addressing the issues the AfD has run on.
A New Page, Or A New Chapter?
It is not lost on the AfD how divisive its platform is. Some AfD leaders are considering softening their image to gain access to government coalitions and positions.
In early July, the party signed a manifesto dropping their calls for the “remigration” of immigrants, while also vowing to dress smartly and act more professionally in a bid to go more mainstream. Other palette-cleansing efforts include expelling a regional politician from the party for using Nazi-associated language in emails and dissolving its extremist youth branch.
Another plan for the AfD includes focusing on dividing the mainstream parties with cultural issues and then gaining support from the conservative voting bloc, who could be dissatisfied with the CDU’s current policy stances on the economy and immigration, and worried about the growth of the far-left.
But the AfD does not need to work hard to grow its influence, and its leaders know it. Most of the changes are simply aesthetic, and the AfD’s influence on politics is already being felt, even with a potential (but perhaps unlikely) ban looming.
German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt’s belief in “governing away” the AfD has largely been the CDU’s stance thus far, focusing primarily on tackling immigration.
After winning the election, Merz vowed to crack down on migrants, and in May, he ordered border police to Germany to reject undocumented migrants at the border. Although that order was later ruled unconstitutional, the German government has seen first-time asylum applications drop by almost a third over the past year.
Things are far less rosy on the economic front, however. Germany expects zero growth in 2025 in large part due to the ongoing global trade shocks, even as major German companies recently announced a major investment initiative.
If the government manages to bring down immigration numbers and jumpstart economic growth, voters may swing back to the mainstream parties, making a ban unnecessary.
Additionally, a ban would further play into the AfD’s victim narrative of being attacked and ostracized by the “political establishment”. This victim narrative has proven especially persistent and effective for opposition movements in the United States and elsewhere in Europe.
But the firewall is already showing cracks, both within Merz’s own party and with other smaller parties like the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, saying they are open to conversations with the AfD.
If Merz is unable to deliver on cracking down on immigration and boosting the economy, the AfD’s reliance on frustrated voters may well give them the final boost into power. But if Merz can deliver, then the keystone issues of the AfD may become a double-edged sword that voters use to beat the AfD back out of relevance. Either way, the AfD’s position is undeniably strong at the moment, and if Merz and his coalition don’t enact a ban or address the AfD’s concerns, then it may be the AfD next in the driver’s seat.
