European Central: Slovenia’s Arms Embargo On Israel Is More Important Than It Seems
Kypros/Elizabeth Fernandez
Over the past few weeks, the winds in Europe have been changing regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza. France, the UK, and Portugal, amongst other nations, have all vowed to recognize Palestinian statehood in the coming weeks, if the situation does not change on the ground. Now, Slovenia has become the first EU country to impose a full arms embargo on Israel, after recognizing the Palestinian state last year.
While the major European nations are only now recognizing Palestine and pushing for Israel to halt its newest offensive in Gaza, Slovenia has long been ahead of the curve with its policies towards Israel, alongside other nations like Ireland and Sweden.
But with casualties rising past 55,000 dead and 125,000 wounded, and with famine spreading across the territory, does Slovenia’s arms embargo foretell a drastic shift in Europe’s policies towards Israel?
Slovenia As A Trendsetter
Slovenia is far from the first nation to take action in order to pressure the Israeli government into accepting a ceasefire or increasing aid shipments into Gaza; Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain all have instituted partial embargoes on any new weapons deals over the past two years. Slovenia also wasn’t particularly quick to recognize Palestine, only doing so in 2024 after Spain, Ireland, and Norway.
What sets Slovenia apart, however, is its broad range of efforts pressuring Israel. In addition to being the first full embargo, the move follows the nation’s decision last month to declare two far-right Israeli cabinet ministers, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, persona non grata, marking another European first.
A more interesting move by Slovenia was its choice in January 2024 to join the proceedings of South Africa’s genocide case against Israel in the ICC, the first and only to do so. While this had little functional impact on the case, as they couldn’t join the case itself, it does show a unique willingness by Slovenia’s government to push harder than its European counterparts against Israel.
A major part of why Slovenia has pushed so far is its current government. Led by a coalition of the Freedom Movement, the Social Democrats, and the Left, they have sought to chart a vastly different path from their preceding center-right government led by Janez Janša. Janša frequently highlighted his good relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The presence of the Left in the ruling coalition, a foreign policy that often supports international organizations and human rights, and strong pro-Gaza sentiment among young protesters in Slovenia have combined to make the country one of the leading European supporters of Palestine through aid and cooperation.
This all goes to show that Slovenia has a recent history of pressuring Israel. In lieu of a unified EU stance towards the war in Gaza, Slovenia decided that it had to take the lead, saying that the EU “is currently incapable of completing this task due to internal discord and disunity”.
With Slovenia taking the lead, the winds are certainly beginning to shift. But the actual material and immediate difference that this arms embargo will induce, combined with growing recognition of Palestine, is complicated.
Symbols And Their Worth
The Slovenian arms embargo itself will not change much in terms of weaponry, mainly because its government hasn’t actually issued new permits since the conflict’s start in late 2023. However, what it has done is increase the pressure on Slovenia's European neighbors to also enact embargoes.
Just a week after Slovenia’s embargo, Germany, one of Israel’s most consistent and dedicated supporters on account of its atrocities during World War II, followed suit and halted military exports to Israel for use in Gaza.
While Germany’s embargo was more explicitly in protest of a new IDF plan to occupy Gaza City, it is not unreasonable to say that Slovenia’s embargo opened Pandora’s box, allowing other European nations to avoid the potential downsides of being the first to do something that complicated Israeli policy.
Notably, neither of these embargoes will have a major impact on Israel’s military capabilities. In addition to most embargoes in Europe affecting new sales, not existing contracts, even though Germany is Israel’s second biggest supplier, Israel still imports almost 70% of its arms from the U.S. A German ban on new arms sales won’t make a huge difference.
Furthermore, the pledges by various European nations to recognize Palestinian statehood are minimally substantial in its immediate effects. Diplomatically, once a nation recognizes Palestinian statehood, it can exchange ambassadors and establish formal ties (although many nations currently have informal ties with the Palestinian Authority through other channels).
What is important is that another round of conversations exploring a two-state solution has reignited at the U.N., something that statehood recognition lays the groundwork for. But while the increased support for Palestine does imply that a two-state solution could be gaining steam, any real developments on this front are still far down the line and depend on how much control Israel retains over Gaza and the West Bank once the dust settles.
The Chain In The Middle
While the embargoes aren’t immediately game-changing, they set the stage for moves that could possibly have much larger impacts. Already, public opinion in Europe is shifting against Israeli policy, with a recent wave of ports denying arms shipments to Israel in addition to consistent protests.
There are also currently levers on which the EU can pull, namely the EU-Israel Association Agreement and the Horizon Europe program. The association agreement is essentially a framework for political dialogue and economic cooperation between the EU and Israel, and the EU is Israel's biggest trading partner, accounting for 32% of Israel's total trade in goods.
Notably, the agreement has an article that requires both parties to follow international human rights law and respect democratic principles. If the EU chose to suspend the trade agreement, 34.2% of Israel’s imports that come from the EU could be jeopardized, and place an immense amount of pressure on Israel’s government to find a solution.
However, despite a May review of the agreement finding Israel in breach of the agreement, no moves have been made yet. Additionally, in order to suspend the agreement, unanimity is required by all member states, something that will likely be impossible to find. This leaves the Horizon program as the next viable alternative.
The European Commission has already proposed partly suspending Israel from its £80bn science research program, a program from which Israel has received €200m of the €900m allocated since 2021 and which benefits 46 Israeli companies. Unlike the trade association, suspending Israel from the Horizon program only requires a qualified majority.
But this also means that Germany would almost certainly need to sign on, something that is possible, but with Germany’s hesitance thus far to push too hard against Israel, may take time to enact.
Between the possible trade and research program suspensions, Slovenia’s arms embargo does not seem particularly significant. But every shift in thought has intermediate steps, where actors keep the ball rolling until it gets too big for the major players to ignore. The fact that Germany followed Slovenia’s lead in enacting an embargo signals that even the most sympathetic nations are running out of patience.
The question now is whether Israel will accelerate its timeline to outpace European push-back, or instead back down and acquiesce to the continent's humanitarian demands.
