European Central: The E3’s Negotiations Over Iran’s Nuclear Program Needs Time It Doesn’t Yet Have
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In recent months, the tensions regarding Iran’s nuclear program have risen exponentially. Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon against Iranian proxies have destabilized Iran, and the June strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities may have actually further pushed Iran towards developing a nuclear weapon.
With Iran’s nuclear program likely still being functional after the strikes, Europe is now in a similar position to the one it was in a decade ago, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) was first penned. As Iran’s nuclear restrictions face an existential threat, how can Europe maintain Iran and America’s diplomatic bridge to avoid escalation, and how might a new deal take shape?
The Original Deal
Born after two years of negotiations, the original JCPOA was deemed by the American public as an unsatisfying deal, and would remain a controversial aspect of President Barack Obama’s foreign policy resume. European experts and leaders, on the other hand, saw it as a diplomatic success, albeit one that would need constant maintenance to yield fruit.
In the final 2015 deal, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and allow international inspections of its facilities in exchange for billions of dollars’ worth of sanctions relief and international monitoring of its facilities. Should Iran be found in violation of this deal, there is a “snap back mechanism”, where the international sanctions would be re-imposed on Iran without the need for UN Security Council approval.
But the deal only lasted in its original form for three years, until President Donald Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018. In the years since the U.S. left, Iran has restarted its pursuit of nuclear weapons. In 2020, following the assassination of a top Iranian nuclear scientist, Iran lifted all restrictions on its uranium enrichment from the 2015 deal.
Since then, Iran has removed most IAEA monitoring equipment and enriched uranium up to 84 percent, inches away from the 90 percent level that constitutes it being “weapons grade”.
Now, with the strikes hamstringing Iran’s negotiations with the U.S. regarding its nuclear program, the E3, a diplomatic grouping consisting of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, has begun implementing the snapback mechanism. Additionally, the IAEA board has found Iran in violation of the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and in response, Iranian officials have raised the possibility of leaving the Non-Proliferation Treaty, risking a massive escalation in the Middle East.
The 30 And 48-Day Windows
The snapback mechanism has not kicked in quite yet; after the E3 initiated the mechanism, there is a 30-day period ending on September 27, during which diplomatic efforts will be at their highest intensity.
The E3 offered a six-month delay on the snapback mechanism’s implementation if Iran resumes negotiations with the U.S., allows IAEA inspectors access to its sites, and gives accounts for all of its enriched uranium to the United Nations. These six months would then be devoted to the necessary (and historically long) negotiations to resolve the issue.
But there is another deadline looming. On October 18th, the original JCPOA deal will expire, and with it, so will the snapback mechanism. Afterward, any sanctions could die by a Russian or Chinese veto. Both nations have previously backed Iran in negotiations to an extent, and Russia has lent specialists to Iranian nuclear sites.
Additionally, Russia will assume the U.N. Security Council Presidency in October, giving it substantial power to delay progress until the JCPOA expires, should it want to. While both Russia and China introduced a draft resolution to extend the timeline of the JCPOA, some experts say it is more posturing than an actual solution. This, combined with the upcoming Russian UNSC presidency and October 18th deadline, means there is immense pressure on Europe to reach a deal quickly.
Iran Sits Between A Rock And A Hard Place
Iran understands its tenuous position. Any further pursuit of a nuclear weapon might inspire a far more severe Israeli attack than before. Israel has long used the looming threat of an Iranian nuke to justify military action, and with a weakened proxy network and an emboldened Israel, Iran may see itself looking at a bloody, and possibly unwinnable, fight.
Additionally, the sanctions it has endured thus far have been crippling, with economic losses between 2011 and 2023 estimated at $1.2 trillion. But Iran’s current economy is also showing signs of weakness. The nation’s economic lifelines, oil and gas, have been prime sanction targets and fluctuate wildly due to regional tensions. According to Reuters, inflation sits around 40% while around a quarter of Iranians are below the poverty line.
If the snapback sanctions hit, Iran’s economy could be sent reeling. But Iran has already endured harsh sanctions for decades now in order to pursue its nuclear program, which has become a source of national pride with a list of martyred scientists and leaders. Additionally, its nuclear facilities hit in June’s strikes might be far less damaged than initially claimed, so Iran has an ability to continue its advancement.
Thankfully for Iranian leadership, it doesn’t have to make this decision yet. While its parliament is currently drafting a law to leave the NPT, it has at least 30 days to engage in diplomacy with Europe and America.
Once More Unto The Breach
Already, there has been progress. On August 27, IAEA inspectors were given access to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear reactor, and Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, has said that Iran was willing to reduce its enriched uranium’s purity to the original 3.67% set in 2015, as long as the nation can enrich uranium domestically.
But there remain substantial hurdles. On Washington’s end, the Trump administration says it remains committed to a “zero enrichment” proposal, something that would be extremely hard to accept for Iran.
Additionally, trust between Europe and Iran is damaged because of the snapback mechanism’s implementation, and there is still fear in Iran that any info gathered by IAEA inspectors could be passed on to Israel for further strikes.
Europe now stands in a similar situation to the JCPOA’s original negotiations. This time, however, it has to tangle with Donald Trump’s hardline stance in addition to Iran’s threats. While its implementation of the snapback mechanism will put necessary pressure on Iran to come to the negotiating table, there is still more work to be done on both sides.
In the E3’s letter to the UN, the group stressed the goal was to buy time for negotiations. This needs to remain their stance, and if European leaders can extend the mechanism while gaining Iranian concessions (such as further IAEA access), it could go a long way in laying the groundwork for the harder conversations down the road.
Those conversations, however, will need to happen in conjunction with the U.S., and convincing American negotiators that a softening of their red line is the only way to avoid conflict will be necessary. Playing to Trump’s self-identity as a master deal-maker while also convincing him of a potential foreign policy win amongst a list of controversial foreign policies may prove fruitful.
Negotiations are often a marathon, not a sprint: the original JCPOA negotiations lasted nearly 12 years. If Europe is going to safeguard its safety and bring Iran back into NPT compliance, then it needs to buy time to find the common ground between all actors. With a little over a month on the clock, Europe is going to need to pull a lot of strings to bring the U.S. and Iran back to the table. But there is hope, because it has already done it once before.
