European Central: Armenians To Vote In Crucial Election

Dmitrii Vaccinium

Armenians will cast their ballots this June in what is set to be a crucial parliamentary election, determining the future of the country’s latest course Westward and the geopolitical dynamics of the broader South Caucasus region. Over the last eight years, the post-Soviet country has moved closer toward Europe and made concrete steps to ascend to the EU after Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his Civil Contract party secured victory during the 2018 Velvet Revolution. That election outcome was rooted in anti-corruption demands, anti-Russian sentiment, and calls for Western-style democratization.

However, eight years later, this June 7 vote unfolds amid growing dissatisfaction with Pashinyan’s government over the unresolved conflict with Azerbaijan and frustration with Armenia’s military defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, which led to the displacement of more than 100,000 Armenians from the territory. 

Questions surrounding Armenia’s geopolitical identity and national security have become similarly critical, with an array of Moscow-backed opposition parties accusing the government of weakening Armenia’s security by pursuing constitutional reforms, expanding cooperation with the EU, and distancing the country from Russian influence.  

Democratization And The Pro-European Course

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Armenia’s political and security structures remained closely tied to Russia for several years. Moscow served as Armenia’s principal military ally, maintained a military base inside the country, and government positions and state institutions were filled by political elites connected to Soviet-era networks. 

In the 2010s, public frustration gradually intensified, leading up to 2018 and the Velvet Revolution. Large-scale street protests led by Pashinyan forced long-time leader Serzh Sargsyan to resign after attempting to remain in power through constitutional changes. The protests mobilized broad segments of Armenian society and created strong public expectations for institutional reform, judicial independence, and greater political transparency.

Following the revolution, Pashinyan’s government introduced anti-corruption measures and attempted to strengthen democratic governance. While the country has made steps to gradually expand political and economic cooperation with the EU, including adopting a law to launch its EU accession, Yerevan still maintains its membership in a Russian-led economic union. Furthermore, Russia remains a major trading partner, which would make full decoupling from Moscow difficult. Pashinyan has sought to counter this by positioning Armenia as a key ally for Europe in the South Caucasus region, and this was on display earlier in May when the first Armenia-EU summit was held in Yerevan. In her opening statement ahead of the bilateral talks with Pashinyan, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Europe was ready to aid Armenia in becoming a regional hub for global trade routes, and pledged to assist the country in countering Russian influence. 

The Loss Of Nagorno-Karabakh

The loss of Nagorno-Karabakh remains an important issue shaping Armenia’s political environment ahead of the election. Many voters blame Pashynian for the loss of the enclave that, prior to the war with Azerbaijan, was controlled by Armenia for decades.  

During the three-year conflict, Azerbaijan gained substantial territories, while a Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement introduced Russian peacekeepers into Nagorno-Karabakh. Although the agreement temporarily froze hostilities, it failed to produce a lasting political settlement between the two countries.

In 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military operation that restored full Azerbaijani control over Nagorno-Karabakh, triggering a mass displacement of nearly the entire Armenian population in the region, which created a humanitarian and political crisis inside Armenia. The displacement and ineffective efforts to negotiate a peace agreement between the two countries affected public confidence in the government and intensified criticism of Pashinyan’s leadership. Meanwhile, opposition parties have criticized the involvement of the United States and the European Union in the peace talks, echoing Russian displeasure with Armenia pivoting westward. 

Voter Discourse and Fragmentation

Although recent polling shows Pashinyan as the most trusted politician in the country, public support for the Prime Minister and the government has declined considerably since the 2018 Velvet Revolution. 

As a result of a large fragmentation of the opposition parties, the governing Civil Contract party is likely to remain the largest party in parliament, yet it is poised to lose its current majority, which would inevitably force Pashinyan into coalition negotiations with Russia-favourable opposition. That outcome could lead to a halt in strengthening ties with the West. 

While both the incumbent government and opposition parties focus most of their campaign rhetoric and pre-election pledges on Armenia's geopolitical identity, socio-economic issues have remained insufficiently addressed. Voters’ concerns over the economy and unemployment, low wages, housing, and healthcare receive limited attention in political discourse, even as polling indicates that, particularly for young people, these issues have equal importance to geopolitical concerns in this June’s election.