Inside Africa: Region Navigates COVID-19 Uncertainty
The African tourism industry was on the rise only six months ago. Africa News reported that the region was the home of the second-fastest growing tourism industry in the world, following just behind the Asian tourism industry in 2019. Approximately 67 million international tourists came to visit the region in 2018, an increase from the 63 million in 2017. Easier travel between countries and more hype behind tourist destinations led the industry to make up more than 8% of the GDP in Africa, equaling $194.2 billion. The report was issued in December in 2019, but like many regions across the world, the COVID-19 pandemic has halted any further growth for the time being due to limited travel, especially internationally, and lock downs that affected other industries across the region as people globally try to contain and combat the virus.
Now, the South African Minister of Tourism Mmamoloko Kubayi-Ngubane is warning his government that if the restrictions continue as they have for another three months, 600,000 jobs will be at risk. In a May 30, 2020 statement, the minister explained that while the lock downs and the attempts to control the pandemic’s spread have helped the country’s public health response, it still has put many in the position of wondering how they will make a living. With the American, British and Brazilian tourists not coming to have a safari experience, reservations with tour operators were canceled in one fell swoop, Reuters reported. These operators have investments like buses and other equipment unused, and communities who relied on the operators for jobs, either as guides or in shops selling to the tourists, to feed their families. Many worry that the impact COVID-19 has already shut many of them down for good. Popular destinations like South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda can no longer expect droves of tourists to help keep them afloat. Even in South Africa where some relief packages have been issued to these struggling tourism businesses, the longer the COVID-19 restrictions go on, the more people wonder if they will ever open again, and people from the local communities and regions can’t be expected to support these operators long enough to survive the pandemic.
As of June 17, 2020, the entire continent had more than 250,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, South Africa and Nigeria being the hardest hit. Besides a crippled tourism industry, the repercussions of the world-wide pandemic can be felt in many sectors. The World Food Programme anticipates that the region could be the hardest hit. Volatile global prices of food, fuel, and other commodities leave an already vulnerable population at greater risk. Intra-continental trade took a hit when many countries closed their borders in response to COVID-19. Volatile global prices hurt many regions across the continent due to their reliance on fuel exports. All of this could lead to food insecurity.
Like those who make a living in the safari industry, the people working day-to-day in market settings will face difficulties as closed borders lead to issues with product availability and ever-changing prices that will make purchasing essentials impossible to many if the situation continues. Bus drivers face fewer passengers and independent vendors cannot rely on travelers for their patronage. The situation will only grow worse if in refugee camps like those in Nigeria and South Sudan or in urban slums there is a COVID-19 outbreak.
Already, many are working toward addressing these issues. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) met June 8, 2020 to look at possible trade routes between the 15 participating countries. The purpose of this meeting was to “firm up the guidelines for the harmonization and facilitation of Cross Border Trade and Transportation in the region.” The goal is to open up pathways for cross-border trade and transportation for humanitarian aid and get medical supplies and personnel to respond to the pandemic while also allowing trade, transport, free movement and cross-border trade to continue. It is a balancing act between reopening the economy and public safety.
In regards to food security, something that requires close attention since many Africans are living day-to-day and rely on their local marketplaces for food on a daily basis, there is more work that needs to be done. With most Africans living on less than $5.50 each day, this is something that needs to be seriously looked at if governments are going to be shutting down businesses and cutting people off from their livelihoods by asking that they stay at home. The African Development Bank is working toward a series of projects and programs that might help African countries to solutions to any negative impacts to food security and nutrition. These solutions will require multi-country cooperation that tackle any obstacles to regional trade due to shutdowns and border closures. Many recommendations have been made, but there is much to do moving forward.
Figuring out this balance is the mission of most international organizations. The World Health Organization, the African Union Commission, and the International Monetary Fund are among a few of the groups entering the discussions facing economic recovery. IMF African Department Director Abbe Aemro Selassie said the pandemic is “an unprecedented crisis which is threatening to reverse the region’s recent development and policy gains.” The Sub-Saharan African economy has been on the rise with growing tourism, information technology and communications and agriculture. However, the global pandemic could set the region back even after all the gains it has made in the last several decades. Selassie estimates that the current climate could set the region’s growth back to what it was in the 1970’s. Less income is being generated due to shuttering businesses and asking people to stay home. Subsistence farming should not be impacted greatly by the pandemic and the orders to contain it, which is a positive, but the growing economy connecting the region to the world in industries like technology and tourism could lose that forward momentum they have been gaining in recent years.
Selassie also acknowledged that this is an unprecedented situation in that it is global, instead of localized to certain countries or regions, and there have been many examples through the years, one notably being the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2014-2016. When Ebola ravaged West African countries like Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia, commodity prices declined, but the impact of the outbreak was mostly confined to the region. COVID-19 differs in that no country seems to be able to hide from it. Every economy in the world is figuring out how to reopen, find a new normal and ensure public health.
