Checkpoint: The Global Failure To Address Climate Change
markus spiske
Summary
Our planet's climate crisis becomes more urgent by the day, with emissions levels, warming temperatures, and species extinction surging to pivotal junctures. The looming threat persists despite a barrage of promises and commitments by nations worldwide, underscoring the importance of immediate action by world leaders.
Unfortunately, global climate action has primarily been instances of countries pledging ambitious measures to address the issue but having yet to succeed in their resolve or execution. From grand policy declarations to tangible actions, the divide between intent and implementation is glaring.
This discrepancy becomes even more pressing as the United Nations' annual Conference of Parties climate summit, COP28, continues in Dubai until December 12th. As it stands, many advisors and negotiators feel discouraged by the results of the last 27 conferences. Skeptical feelings about COP28's success are not unfounded, given that the United Arab Emirates is one of the world's biggest oil producers and some of the most powerful global states (including the US) don't plan to slow fossil fuel usage.
The disproportionate impact of climate change on impoverished communities in the developing world amplifies inequalities and vulnerabilities and further exacerbates the emergency. World governments, especially those most responsible, need to assume the responsibility to protect their citizens and combat climate change.
Ensuring a quality future for the populace hinges upon proactive measures to mitigate environmental risks and secure sustainable living conditions. Presently, examining the historical course of international agreements and the stark disparity between the world's climate endeavors and the harsh realities is imperative.
Promises Made: International Agreements
Key conventions and landmark agreements that foster collaboration and collective responsibility have shaped the global response to climate change. The Montreal Protocol in 1987 became a benchmark for future international environmental law as the first accord that sought to limit the production of substances that harmed the planet.
Unfortunately, the protocol is among very few successful treaties, eliminating almost 99 percent of ozone-depleting chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) prioritized sustainability and considered countries' diverse capacities and historical emissions.
"The ultimate objective of this Convention [...] is to achieve [...] stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."
–– Article 2 of the UNFCCC
The UNFCCC meant funding by developed, wealthy nations and regularly reporting climate change policies and measures to facilitate this end. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol marked a significant milestone by establishing binding emission targets for developed nations.
The document asserted that industrialized countries had to reduce collective emissions of six different greenhouse gases by 5.2 percent. In 2013, during a second period, countries committed to at least 18 percent reductions. These agreements also included an adaptation fund–––to help streamline mitigation efforts without imposing severe financial burdens on poorer countries–––and robust enforcement mechanisms.
However, the United States signed the agreement in 1998, never ratified it, and eventually removed its signature. The most recent treaty, the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, symbolized inclusivity and adaptability in managing environmental challenges.
"Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels [...]"
–– Article 2, Section 1 of the Paris Agreement
The agreement emphasized flexibility and empowered states to autonomously set emissions limits tailored to their individual circumstances. While this elasticity encouraged broader participation, concerns arose regarding standardizing benchmarks and ensuring universal effectiveness. Furthermore, the only legally binding element of the agreement is that countries must periodically report their emissions status.
Total net anthropogenic GHG emissions, 1990–2022
Source: 2023 United Nations Environment Programme
Reality Check: Failures And Shortcomings
Regrettably, while the set goals were commendable, their success has remained elusive. Recent scientific assessments by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provided insights into climate change and projected a concerning future. Despite the objectives of the Paris Agreement, the global temperature is on track to surpass the critical 1.5°C tipping point by 2035. This trajectory could lead to an unsustainable warming of around 2.5°C by the century's end.
The UNFCCC's latest synthesis report highlighted that the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) declared by the Paris Agreement signatories are estimated to result in only a marginal 0.3 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, significantly below the required 43 percent reduction to limit warming to 1.5°C.
The halt in fossil fuel usage decline, with a global resurgence, further complicates these challenges. In 2021, fossil fuel subsidies surged to approximately $732 billion, nearly doubling from the previous year's $375 billion expenditure. Such subsidies distort energy markets, impede the transition to cleaner alternatives, and undermine climate change mitigation efforts.
This regression hinders progress toward renewable energy, which is predicted to constitute only a fraction of global energy sources by 2030. Simultaneously, nearly 2 billion individuals will persist in relying on environmentally damaging fuels for cooking.
Global C02 Emissions By Country
Summary: The Current State Of Affairs
Advancements in adaptation across the evaluation triad—finance, planning, and execution—are decelerating. The challenges in implementing adaptation measures persist despite augmented funding due to bureaucratic obstacles, inadequate coordination, and general disinformation.
As a result, catastrophic climate events, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and wildfires, are only becoming more frequent. This barrier to practical adaptation efforts worsens the worrying realities of biodiversity decline in vital ecosystems such as forests, coral reefs, and Arctic realms.
The world currently grapples with an unprecedented wave of species extinction, compounded by oceans carrying over 17 million metric tons of plastic pollution in 2021, a figure projected to escalate. This deceleration in adaptation initiatives counters the growth in global climate finance, stressing a drop in monetary support specifically allocated for adaptation efforts in developing nations.
Source: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Report 2023
Financial support from public multilateral and bilateral sources for adaptation in developing nations dwindled by 15 percent, amounting to approximately US$21 billion in 2021. Unfortunately, the evident downturn in support undermines the commitments outlined in COP26 and other climate summits, diverging significantly from the funding strategies essential for crucial adaptation measures.
In the most optimistic outlook, adhering to all conditional Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and achieving net-zero commitments could limit the temperature rise to 2.0°C. Yet, current net-zero commitments lack credibility–––none of the G20 nations are reducing emissions at a pace congruent with their net-zero targets.
Currently, the likelihood of constraining warming to 1.5°C is a mere 14 percent. The dire need for concerted efforts to combat climate change cannot be overstated, and all nations and stakeholders share responsibility and collective accountability. Only through immediate, unified action can the looming disaster be mitigated, necessitating an honest, coordinated response to safeguard the future of our planet and its inhabitants.
