Latin Analysis: The Fight For The Honduran Presidency
Dmitrii Vaccinium
On November 30, the Honduran electorate will head to the polls once again to elect their next president. Historically, the political system in Honduras has been dominated by two parties, the Liberal Party of Honduras (PLH) and the National Party (PNH). However, the election of the current president of Honduras, Xiomara Castro, signified the end of this bipartisan system with her victory in January 2022 with the LIBRE party. The collapse of this two-party system, combined with the aftermath of the primaries in March and subsequent opinion polls, means that it remains unclear who will be victorious in November.
President Castro made history, not only as the first female leader of Honduras, but as the first candidate not from one of the two main parties to win election since the return of democracy to the country in 1982. LIBRE are hoping to repeat their success within this new three-party system in November with nominee Rixi Moncada. However, it appears that voters are skeptical about giving LIBRE another chance at leading the country, given that Castro’s term has been “clouded by allegations of electoral fraud, misappropriation of government resources, institutional fragility, and concerns about a potential authoritarian turn”. Additionally, many people believe that President Castro has failed to achieve her election campaign promises, which involved improving the economy, crime and corruption, the top three voter issues for the Honduran electorate.
LIBRE has hope that their candidate, who has carried out several roles in public office including Minister of Labor. Since her return from exile, which was provoked by the fall of President Manuel Zelaya’s government in June 2009, she has been the president of the National Electoral Council (CNE) and then moved on to become Finance Minister under President Castro, as well as the first female Minister of Defense. A decorated public servant, Rixi Moncada has all the credentials to become the next president. However, will it be enough to make the electorate forget about her predecessor’s failings? Currently, only 10 per cent of Hondurans believe the “economy is good”, compared to 30 per cent of Mexicans and 26 per cent of Salvadorians when asked about their respective domestic economies.
General public discontent surrounding the current administration is a welcome development for the two traditional political forces in Honduras, the Liberal and National Parties, who are both vying to take back the presidency. Salvador Nasralla, ex-vice president of Xiomara Castro and candidate for the Liberal Party, is running his third election campaign, this time vowing to deal with problems regarding unemployment, poverty, crime and corruption. The so-called ‘Lord of Television’, thanks to his extensive media career, has vowed to stimulate investment and an open economy through transparent and trustworthy governance. Despite being Xiomara Castro’s running mate in the last election, he has been vocal in his opposition of LIBRE’s new candidate.
The National Party’s campaign for the presidency, fronted by their candidate Nasry Asfura, is focused on similar aims. He wants to improve opportunities for the population and expand investment opportunities. Asfura’s party is keen to regain the presidency after losing to Castro’s LIBRE party in 2021, but it will not be smooth sailing for this party despite their long history at the top of Honduran politics. Asfura himself became embroiled in a large embezzlement investigation at the end of 2020. Accused of stealing over USD $1 million, Asfura had nine of his properties and three of his companies seized. Despite all charges against him being eventually dropped, Asfura will struggle to distance himself from these accusations in front of the public, who are increasingly worried about dodgy deals and corruption permeating government. Additionally, the wider National Party’s reputation was left in disrepute after their last term in office, with many believing that they ran the country as a “narco-state”.
Only one round of voting will be required to crown one of these candidates as the next president of Honduras. Unlike many other Latin American states, the Honduran political system only requires a simple majority for an election victory, meaning that there will not be any run-off elections. However, there were primaries in March, in which the candidates were chosen. In this vote, Asfura obtained 75.84 per cent of the votes for the right-wing National Party nomination, with his closest rival getting just 21.31 per cent. Rixi Moncada received an even more resounding victory for the LIBRE party nomination, winning 92.64 per cent support, even though she was running against the sitting vice-president of the parliament, Rasel Tomé. Nasralla became the Liberal Party’s choice for president after gaining 58.08 per cent support. Smaller parties like the Innovation and Social Democratic Unity Party, as well as the Christian Democratic Party, will also take part in the November vote.
These primaries were not straight forward, which has spelled trouble for the candidate for the incumbent LIBRE party. The National Electoral Council (CNE) is facing serious accusations after serious logistical failures caused chaos during the March vote. This meant that “[i]n many polling stations, ballot boxes and voting materials arrived up to 12 hours late, and officials reported major problems with transporting supplies.” The CNE president testified that she could not guarantee a clean and accurate general election, and the Center for the Study of Democracy (CESPAD) have been critical of these significant failures in upholding strong electoral processes. In a country that suffers with low political trust, and around 78 per cent of the population having little to no interest in politics, these problems could prove catastrophic in encouraging people to vote. This is worsened by the fact that many are concerned about government corruption, with more than 7 per cent of voters seeing it as the main problem that should be addressed by the administration. Liberal party candidate Nasralla has blamed LIBRE representative Moncada for the failings of the CNE, arguing that it is part of a wider plane to delay the elections. Given that Moncada used to work for the CNE, it may be difficult for her to distance herself from both the failings of her party’s current government, and the actions of her old workplace.
Much like the chaos of the primary election, it appears that the public are also unsure about who they want to be their next president. Recent surveys show that “a large segment of people in Honduras does not see any presidential candidate as their representative and worries about potential issues in the election process.” Some polls have suggested that Salvador Nasralla is the current favorite for the election, with a May study indicating that the Liberal Party candidate is top with 25.2 per cent of the vote, compared to 21.4 per cent for Asura and just 16 per cent for LIBRE’s Moncada. Nasralla is also “the most frequently mentioned option to lead a possible opposition alliance, with 37 per cent support in that scenario”. However, a July poll told a completely different story, suggesting that Moncada was projected to win 40 per cent of the vote, followed by Nasralla with 31.54 per cent and Asfura with 27.4 per cent. Other studies have shown that Asfura’s National Party is set to take the presidency.
If the polls are anything to go by, this November election is anyone’s for the taking. It will be a real test of endurance for these candidates to make it to the end and win the presidency. However, the real work will begin once this vote is over. President Castro has been seen to ‘fail’ in delivering on her campaign promises to improve the economy and tackle crime and corruption. Whoever takes over will have to take decisive action. Otherwise, it is likely that they will not be given the opportunity for a do-over.
