Latin Analysis: How Security Concerns and Geopolitics Are Shaping Mexico’s World Cup Preparations
Hanna Auramenka
As Mexico prepares to co-host the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the government’s hope is that the tournament will deliver significant economic gains and showcase what the country has to offer. However, the run up to kick off has been rife with challenges: A surge in cartel-related violence and mounting geopolitical tensions have introduced uncertainty. These events have forced policymakers to manage the logistics of a mega-event alongside the security risks that could shape how Mexico is perceived on the world stage.
A Historic Tournament With Economic Promise For Mexico
The 2026 World Cup, running from June 11 to July 19, 2026, will be the largest in history – jointly hosted by Mexico, the United States, and Canada, the tournament will feature 48 teams and 104 matches over five weeks. It is expected to draw around 6.5 million attendees. In Mexico, 13 matches will be held across three cities: Mexico City, Monterrey and Guadalajara. The capital will host the opening match between Mexico and South Africa at the Azteca Stadium, currently under renovation to prepare for the event.
The World Cup is widely seen as a significant economic opportunity for Mexico. Projections of the economic impact of the tournament suggest it could generate up to MX$200 billion (around US$11 billion). The government’s more conservative projection is MX$65 billion (US$3.6 billion) total economic activity generated. Not only are the three host cities set to gain, but the hope is to spread the economic benefits nationwide by stimulating tourism, commerce, and services.
Preparations are already influencing the labour market. Surveys show that around 53% of employers are expected to expand hiring between April and June, particularly in the tourism, construction, and service sectors. This reflects a broader surge in demand because of the anticipated influx of visitors and the infrastructure projects associated with the tournament. The government has also committed substantial investment to modernise key infrastructure ahead of the event. Mexico City International Airport is being renovated as a part of a major project, and a new rail link is being built to connect Mexico City to Felipe Ángeles International Airport. Projects are also underway in Monterrey and Guadalajara, while the renovation of Azteca Stadium is being privately financed.
Beyond immediate gains, the government hopes the tournament will have a lasting impact by strengthening domestic markets and accelerating the digitalization of small and medium-sized enterprises. However, past examples – such as Brazil’s 2014 World Cup, which achieved about 60% of projected benefits – serve as a reminder that big events like the World Cup carry inherent risks and that optimism should be tempered.
Security Concerns After the Death of “El Mencho”
The most immediate challenge facing Mexico’s World Cup preparations is public safety, and relatedly, international perceptions of how safe Mexico seems. The recent killing of cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes - leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) and better known as ‘El Mencho’ - in February triggered a wave of violence across the country, but especially Guadalajara.
In the days following his death, cartel members engaged in armed clashes with the military, with roads blocked, vehicles burned, ultimately creating widespread unrest – at least 62 people were killed. Authorities imposed emergency measures, including suspending public transport and closing schools. While the situation has now stabilized, Mexico remains under heightened alert – around 10,000 troops have been deployed across Jalisco, and international travel advisories still urge caution due to risks of crime and kidnapping.
In the context of the World Cup, Guadalajara is scheduled to stage four World Cup matches and a 39-day FIFA Fan Fest. The unrest therefore raised concerns that domestic instability could endanger players and fans, or force last-minute changes to match locations. Experts warn that the killing of a cartel leader, while often intended to reduce violence, can produce unintended consequences – it can fragment criminal networks and create power vacuums, making the situation more unpredictable. This phenomenon is known as the “decapitation paradox”. Therefore, it remains unclear whether stability will hold in the months leading up to the tournament this summer.
‘Plan Kukulkan’ and the Security Response
In response to the unrest, Mexican authorities launched an extensive security operation called “Plan Kukulkan”. The government will deploy around 99,000 personnel across host cities and surrounding tourist areas – this includes 20,000 military personnel, 55,000 police officers, and private security teams, which would be supported by thousands of vehicles, aircraft, drones, and specialised units, such as bomb-detection dogs. Security will be heavily concentrated in the three host cities, with additional measures including surveillance systems and controlled perimeters around the stadiums and transport hubs. Authorities have also signalled a willingness to adopt a “saturation strategy,” flooding sensitive areas with military and national guard presence to deter violence.
The response of both Mexican officials and FIFA has been to project confidence. President Claudia Sheinbaum emphasized that the country is prepared, while FIFA reiterated its trust in all three host nations. Publicity campaigns have also been launched to reassure tourists and counter negative perceptions by promoting a sense of safety. Some analysts also suggest that criminal groups themselves may have an incentive to avoid disrupting the tournament, as cartels could benefit economically from increased tourism and may seek to maintain a low profile to avoid intensified security crackdowns.
Geopolitics And The Iran Question
Beyond internal security, Mexico’s preparations are also being shaped by geopolitics, a key issue being the uncertainty surrounding where Iran’s matches will be played. Iran is currently scheduled to play all its group-stage matches in the United States. However, statements from Iranian football officials have indicated reluctance to travel, citing concerns over player safety amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Discussions have therefore emerged about relocating these matches to Mexico.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has left the door open, stating that such a move is under discussion and would ultimately depend on FIFA’s decision. In theory, Mexico could accommodate additional fixtures, as scheduling conflicts are minimal. However, FIFA has so far ruled out any changes, insisting that the tournament will proceed according to the schedule announced last December. Relocating matches would not only disrupt carefully planned logistics, but also create significant challenges for fans, many of whom have already booked travel and accommodation. The issue underscores the broader reality that the 2026 World Cup sits at the intersection of sport and geopolitics, as immigration policies, conflicts, and diplomatic relations are all shaping the tournament environment in unforeseen ways.
Mexico’s role as a World Cup host offers a powerful opportunity to boost its economy, showcase its culture, and strengthen its global image. But it also exposes the country to heightened scrutiny at a time of internal and external strain. Managing security concerns and navigating geopolitical sensitivities will be critical in determining the success of the event and the government’s capacity to create a safe and welcoming environment for this highly anticipated event.