Across ANZ: New Zealand Faces major issues with population demographics
Ketan Kumawat
Over the last two decades, there has been major emigration from New Zealand, with working aged citizens consistently leaving the country in search of better employment opportunities elsewhere in the world. Following the 2008 Financial Crisis, the 2010s marked some of the highest emigration rates of New Zealanders. This drain of the nation’s workforce placed significant strain on the economy, still having noticeable impacts today. Of those who left New Zealand, many were educated individuals capable of performing skilled labor, leaving the nation lacking in people to fill these roles. As the economy began to recover, some New Zealanders began returning to the country, and emigration rates declined, bringing an end to the “brain drain” seen in the 2010s.
In the 2020s, following the COVID-19 Pandemic, mass emigration of native New Zealanders began again. Estimates regarding the number of New Zealanders leaving and returning to the country highlights a net loss of native New Zealanders year after year. In 2025, net migration resulted in a loss of over 43,000 native New Zealanders, one of the worst instances of “brain drain” since the 2010s. With this rise in emigration, New Zealand now once again faces a lack of skilled laborers that will have major impacts on the economy.
Estimated Net Migration of New Zealanders
The biggest issue caused by net negative migration from the country is an aging population. As working aged New Zealanders move out of the country, an older population is left behind, increasingly heading towards retirement age. The New Zealand Retirement Commission reported that as of 2018, individuals aged 65 or older made up about 15.2% of the population. They have also estimated that by 2048, this number will rise to 26% if nothing is done about current demographic trends. Declining birth rates and the aforementioned exodus of young New Zealanders are the cause of the elderly population taking up such a large percentage of the total population.
Poor economic conditions within New Zealand are not only to blame for New Zealanders leaving the country, but the birth rates as well. There are many reasons for which a person may choose not to have children, however in New Zealand, one of the most common reasons is lack of economic opportunities and support required to sustain having children. In an interview with Radio New Zealand, child-free influencer Danni Duncan stated that women across the country are increasingly “choosing themselves” amid tough economic times. With New Zealand lacking significant economic development in the last decades, citizens have taken action to improve their own quality of life, which in turn has led the nation into a downward spiral that it must find its way out of.
The government is taking action against the “brain drain” they are currently facing, with hopes that changes made will additionally help to improve the nation’s economy. Since 2023, the Skilled Migrant Category (SMC) Resident Visa has been in effect, helping to supplement the workforce with skilled laborers from abroad. The SMC visa has granted thousands of skilled migrants entry to New Zealand, helping to shore up labor shortages caused by the high emigration rates of educated New Zealanders. The SMC system ensures that those approved for the visa contribute to the workforce in order to stay in the country through the use of a point system. In order to qualify for the visa, migrants must attain six points from prior work experience or education, after attaining these points and qualifying for the visa, accepted applicants are required to work in New Zealand for two years before being able to apply for a permanent residence.
Another manner in which the government is attempting to tackle current issues with “brain drain” is by improving the ability of New Zealand natives to return to the country. The Trans-Tasman Travel Arrangement is a joint initiative between Australia and New Zealand that allows for free movement of Australian and New Zealand citizens between the two nations. With Australia being one of the most prominent places for New Zealanders to emigrate to, this agreement helps to ensure that if they so choose, New Zealand natives will be able to easily return to their home country. While New Zealanders presently find that Australia has better work opportunities and economic development, as New Zealand begins to improve its current situation, many may find themselves wanting to return home.
The main reason New Zealand is taking such direct action to counteract this issue now is due to the unsustainability of an ageing population financially. Without a sizable workforce contributing to a nation’s economy, the costs of supporting a large elderly population is very difficult to maintain. New Zealand provides all residents over the age of 65 with a biweekly pension, making a large elderly population extremely costly to the government. This cost has historically been supported by working New Zealanders, who paid into these systems so that they would benefit from them when they reached retirement age. Presently, with a shrinking working population and a growing elderly population, these biweekly payments will be unsustainable for New Zealand to manage in the coming years. Without further efforts to shift current trends within New Zealand’s population demographics, this issue will continue to worsen as time goes on.
