European Central: France Is Eyeing The Final Frontier Of Defense
Rafael Garcin
Many European nations have focused increasingly on defense in the past few years, largely spurred by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. From drone warfare to supply chain sovereignty, policymakers have had their eyes on the threat of war looming on the horizon. Only recently, however, have they begun looking up at threats from above.
Prior to releasing their new space strategy, the French presidential palace said that “space is no longer a peaceful place”. It is not the only one realizing the threat, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius also recognizing this threat, warning that “satellite networks are the Achilles' heel of modern societies” and that “attacks on them can paralyze entire nations.”
Between big tech companies’ satellites being the backbone of military communications and the rising threat of strikes from foreign adversaries, France is beginning to shift its defense plans accordingly. But their own financial situation presents a massive hurdle, and without a huge shift in approach, it may be doomed from the start.
From Space Race To Arms Race
Nations competing in space isn’t particularly new; the USSR and the U.S. had an especially competitive race following the Second World War. But while that focused on spaceflight technologies and reaching the moon, the modern space race has a finish line far closer to Earth.
Intelligence and jamming are both now cornerstones of orbital warfare. The US CORONA program, a series of early reconnaissance satellites, was an early example of attempts to leverage satellites for military use, and the use of satellites for recon still remains.
But now, with how digital the modern world has become, jamming, cyberattacks, and other forms of electronic warfare can also be used in conjunction with satellites. For example, modern artillery relies on GPS for its targeting, and even inter-unit communication relies on satellites.
After the invasion of Ukraine, these fears became reality, with an added twist. In 2022, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk denied requests from Ukraine for satellite guidance and instead ordered engineers to turn off his Starlink satellite system for the nation, hamstringing a drone strike on Russia’s Black Sea fleet.
This incident proved two major points to European leaders. First, it showed how dependent modern warfare has become on an internet connection, and consequently emphasized the importance of securing a stable connection to and from satellites. Secondly, it showed that on top of the threat of other nations having satellites, private corporations (which are often U.S.-based), are also relevant actors in space and could have an agenda of their own.
No Longer A Two-Horse Race
The United States has essentially eschewed its own national space agency, NASA, in favor of private corporations like SpaceX, which has granted it a lot of additional speed and resources to push its influence further into space. Meanwhile, China has enhanced its own national space agency while simultaneously leveraging private companies, and as a result it has sped to the front of the pack when it comes to the modern space race.
Russia has also joined in, mainly on the electronic warfare front, and has been aggressively targeting British and German satellites in addition to teaming up with China on a joint lunar nuclear project. But as for Europe? “The gap is significant,” according to the director of the European Space Policy Institute. “To be anywhere relevant in the next five to 10 years, [Europe] needs to at least double its investment in space.”
To that end, it seems France is trying to take the lead. In 2022, a French startup called Dark was established to focus on intercepting and disposing objects in space, both hostile and inert. The threat that debris poses to satellites is massive, as any small projectile in space can rupture technology in a place that is extremely costly to reach for repairs. By April this year, Dark had raised $11 million in venture funding, a relatively small but still respectable fund.
More recently, in June, France took control of Starlink competitor Eutelsat, giving the debt-laden company a boost of $1.55 billion in addition to help stabilize the satellite company. This would make France the largest shareholder at 30%, with Britain having another 10%.
Eutelsat is currently Europe's best bet for competing with SpaceX, as it is the only non-American or non-Chinese company with a wide range of low-earth orbit operations. This element of sovereignty is partly what makes it so attractive, but it has a long way to go. Eutelsat has a meager fleet of 650 satellites compared with Starlink’s 7,500-large network.
Additionally, Eutelsat has said that it will need thrice the number of satellites than previously predicted, amounting to a $2.55 billion bill that will strain France’s already tight budget. Additionally, the aforementioned startup Dark shuttered operations in October after not being able to reach a sustainable business model, a poor omen for France’s private space sector.
So what about France’s public space program? At the moment, France’s current military budget allocates roughly $7 billion to space-related defense projects, and this month, Macron announced an additional $4.9 billion in funding. In terms of civilian spending, France currently invests an estimated $2.7 to $2.8 billion per year in its civil space program, an amount Macron wants to raise to $18.5 billion over the next four years.
This funding would focus on patrol satellites, lasers designed to counter satellites, and electronic jammers. Additionally, the private company Thales was contracted by France’s Defense Procurement Agency to develop AURORE, which would be Europe’s largest space surveillance radar. But once again, the budget crisis looms.
Many experts have long worried that increased defense spending will lead to social welfare cuts, something that the French populace has no problem protesting over.
Many Hands Make Light Work
There is one last hope, however. In October, European aerospace companies Airbus, Leonardo, and Thales announced that they would combine their satellite and space activities into a $7.5 billion business, initially named Project Bromo, that will be headquartered in southern France.
This company would still only be a third of SpaceX’s value, but it represents the cooperation that would be needed across Europe to truly rival its American and Chinese competitors. This, combined with Eutelsat’s recent success tackling its debt, are both good omens for France’s campaign to protect Europeans interests in space. Thankfully, other nations are beginning to pitch in too.
Germany just released its first-ever national security space strategy, which follows up on a September announcement by Pistorius that the government would invest €40 billion over the next five years on space security. Additionally, Germany has pushed for further European cooperation, and support for the EU Space Act, which is a framework to ensure safety, competitiveness, and environmental sustainability across the industry seems to be growing.
France, and Europe as a whole, still has a long way to go. Funding and planning are both in preliminary stages, and previous startups focused on European industrial sovereignty have failed spectacularly. Budgets are strained, the head start by Europe’s global competitors is massive, and until the EU AI Act passes, a fragmented landscape poses a hurdle for fast growth.
But the gambles on Eutelsat and Project Bromo are necessary in a time where space is increasingly being used by foreign adversaries to disrupt European nations. While self-sufficiency in the world of space defense is a long way down the road, it is always better to get the ball rolling late rather than never.
