The Commons: Will The Green Party Prove A Credible Alternative For UK Voters

The past few months have seen increased speculation about what current polls may mean for the outcome of the next election, with the current Labour government continuing to perform poorly. Much of the media’s attention has been focused on the right-wing Reform party, which has consistently polled ahead of others, leading to speculation that what has been a fringe party may well form the next government. Alongside this however, the past month has seen a rapid surge in support for the Green party of England and Wales, following the election of new leader Zack Polanski in September.

Polanski had been elected to the position following the resignation of previous co-leader Carla Denyer, winning on 84.6% of the vote against the joint ticket of previous co-leaders Adrian Ramsay and Ellie Chowns. In his campaign, Polanski put forwards his own brand of ‘eco-populism’ that seeks to learn from Farage and offers radical solutions to issues of inequality and social injustice. Polanski has described himself as a socialist and populist, calling for a tax on the super-rich in order to address the range of issues currently facing the country,

“There’s an empty space in politics, where we’re not being as bold as we can be,” stated Polanski during his campaign. “We’re not visible enough. I want to see us be a mass movement. There’s something here around eco-populism: still being absolutely based in evidence, science and data – and never losing that – but telling a really powerful story.”

In the month since Polanski’s win, it has appeared as if this more populist approach may well pay off. Polanski has been fully leaning into social media, with his campaign videos going viral on TikTok and elsewhere. The party has become increasingly popular, especially with younger voters, as membership of the Green party has leapt up to as many as 150,000 members – a 70% increase in its membership and more than both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats.

In terms of membership, this will now make it the third largest party in the country. Polanski has held this up as proof that the old two party system governing the UK is broken, and that the Greens will be “the party of choice to counter Reform and their brand of divisive politics.” The Greens have been gunning for disaffected Labour voters, claiming they intend to replace Labour as the main political party for progressives within the UK.

Amid Keir Starmer’s plummeting popularity, there has been an increase in the numbers of councilors and others who have defected from Labour to the Greens, including the former Brighton MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle. Russell-Moyle stated that Labour has “left behind millions of people who want hope and want to see change in their lives, their communities and the world around them. In the Greens, I see a party that is offering that.”

“It has been clear for a long time that there is a sizeable chunk of British voters who want to vote for an unambiguously liberal and left-wing party,” states Mitya Pearson, a specialist in environmental politics at the University of Warwick. “General disillusionment with the Labour government combined with some of the government’s attempts at reform in policy areas such as welfare and immigration have opened up even more opportunities for a liberal-left alternative.”

However, membership of a party and a strong level of success online or in social media does not always translate to success at elections or being able to form the next government. This was made clear back in 2019, when Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gained 1.2 billion views on social media, only to then lose the subsequent election by the largest margin for Labour since 1935. And whilst Polanski has already been able to bring a new level of media attention to the Green Party in recent months, it remains to be seen whether it can present itself as a credible alternative to the government that is able to widen its appeal to the rest of the country.

Whilst environmentalism has become a much bigger issue around the world in recent decades, Green parties had until recently remained outside mainstream politics for the most part. The Green party of England and Wales only gained its first MP in 2010, and have often been dismissed as a fringe, single-issue movement, with only a small support base often portrayed as a specifically white, middle-class background.

There have been some notable exceptions to this however, with Germany being the most obvious example. Elections in 2021 saw Germany’s equivalent to the Greens, Die Grunen, entering into a coalition with the governing Social Democratic Party, after having briefly become the country’s most popular party on a predicted 30% of the vote. Under the leadership of Robert Habeck and Annalena Baerbock, who respectively served as ministers for the economy and diplomacy, Die Grunen was able to make unprecedented moves towards boosting their mainstream appeal and attracting the votes of a wider section of the populace.

Whilst the government they were a part of has since collapsed, Die Grunen had been a powerful example for parties with an environmental focus. However, much of their success has been attributed to figures like Habeck and Baerbock having a reputation as pragmatists who could work well with other parties as part of a governing coalition, with their support having collapsed since moving towards the left. As noted by Pearson, “there are some relevant parallels here but the Green Party in Germany has been more centrist in recent years.”

Key to Polanski’s success so far has been in broadening the appeal of the Greens beyond discussion of environmental issues, thereby capturing many of the left-wing voters previously supporting figures such as Jeremy Corbyn. However, this emphasis on issues around inequality and social justice may well have the same effect it had on Germany, in that, whilst left-wing voters and members increase, it may have a more difficult time reaching out to a wider demographic.

This issue was pointed out during the Greens leadership campaign, when rival candidates emphasized their “decades of experience” and claimed they would be better able to appeal to more moderate voters as well as those in rural England. In addition to this, the Greens are further limited by the First Past the Post electoral system used in the UK, which has historically prevented smaller parties from gaining representation in Parliament. This is another of the biggest contrasts with Germany, which uses a system of Proportional Representation, and therefore has had a much more established tradition of governing coalitions that include a range of different parties.

This is something that Polanski himself has gone on record about, having initially been a Liberal Democrat due to their support for electoral reform. But, with the current system operating as it is, Polanski has also been open about the probability that, even with their stated aims of supplanting Labour, the best that the Greens can hope for at present is perhaps 30 or 40 seats. This would not be enough for them to form a government on their own and has left them open to criticism that this will simply split the progressive vote and hand a majority to Reform.

It's likely this will become Labour’s chief attack line on the growing party, as they seek to retain some of their core supporters. “It is expected that Labour will run a ‘squeeze’ message at the next election,” Pearson adds, “arguing that voting for the Green Party will let in Reform.” It remains to be seen however how much traction these arguments may hold. “The Green Party came second in a number of Labour-held seats in 2024,” he adds, “so voters in those areas at least may feel free to vote for the Green Party.”