EU Currents: Caught In The Middle: Lithuania’s Drone Incursions

gustaf von zeipel

Background

Last week, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Lithuania following an increased amount of drone incursions in Lithuania and neighboring states. She met with Baltic heads of state and government officials to coordinate efforts aiming at bolstering shared defense capabilities throughout the region. 

The Baltic region has dealt with more than a dozen incursions since March and the frequency of incursions has increased during the month of May. The drones involved in these incursions are Ukrainian drones that are targeting Russian shipping ports on the Baltic Sea. The incursions are caused through Russian jamming devices that target the navigational systems, causing the drones to go off course.

Latvia has experienced the highest amount of incursions with four drones entering their airspace. Meanwhile, Estonia and Lithuania have both experienced two incursions over the past few months. The situation in Latvia was so severe that it caused an upheaval in the government, as Prime Minister Evika Siliņa stepped down after losing support from her coalition partners in the Progressives party. Siliņa’s dismissal of Defense Minister Andris Sprūds in the aftermath of the Latvian drone incursion on May 7th contributed to the collapse of her coalition as Sprūds was a minister within the Progressives.

Vilnius On Alert

The most recent incursion occurred on May 21. A Ukrainian drone crossed into Lithuanian airspace, prompting authorities to scramble air defenses included in the North American Treaty Organization’s (NATO) air-policing mission.

Vilnius International Airport was closed and shelter-in-place orders were given to the populace. Train service within the nation was also suspended. Incidentally, Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginiene was on her way to a meeting with her national security advisors to address the drone issue before having to take shelter.

“Based on the parameters we saw, it’s most likely either a combat drone or a drone designed to deceive systems and lure targets,” said Vilmantas Vitkauskas, head of Lithuania’s National Crisis Management Center. 

Scrambling air support and activating shelter-in-place orders for citizens in response to an aerial incursion into the nation’s borders is something that has not occurred in the modern history of Lithuania; thus, there were lessons to be learned in the aftermath. 

In the early moments of the air alert, citizens attempting to access shelters discovered that they were locked. Additionally, schools and nurseries suffered from a communication breakdown when it came to directing children to shelters. In many locations, the air alert was regarded as a drill, while some students were denied access to shelter as they were taking tests. 

The first incident in Lithuania occurred a week earlier, with a drone crashing in the northeastern district of Utena. It was not detected initially through Lithuanian defense radars, and it took a week for the drone to be confirmed by authorities as having originated in Ukraine.

The May 21 incursion prompted the largest test for Lithuanian air defense and triggered a hectic search operation that yielded no results. Given that the drones were able to fly below radar detection altitude, reconnaissance aircraft were unable to locate them, and the search was subsequently called off. 

“Unity And Strength”

President von der Leyen commented on the recent incursions in an X post on May 20th, saying in part that “A threat against one Member State is a threat against our entire Union,” and that “Europe will respond with unity and strength.” 

In a letter to President von der Leyen and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas, 15 Members of European Parliament representing Baltic states called for a rejection of “Russia’s baseless allegations on behalf of the EU” and stressing the importance of the European Commission’s continuing support for the Baltic states. 

The “baseless accusations” refer to the Russian response to the drone incursions, in which Moscow has accused the affected nations of allowing Ukraine to use their airspace to launch attacks towards the Russian homeland. 

Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur spoke about the accusations during the GLOBSEC Forum in Prague.

“This is wrong, Ukraine has never asked to use our airspace.”

Pevkur also stated that his government has asked Ukraine to use discretion in their offensive against Russia and has underscored the fact that the presence of drones on either side has been a product of the Russian “war of aggression” and that Russia has often utilized electronic means to “…manipulate the data and to impact the flight path of these drones.” 

For their part, Ukraine has apologized for occurrences involving stray drones but maintains that all drone activities are crucial for national security and defense. Lithuania and other EU nations are not blaming Ukraine for the incursions, instead continuing to rally in defense of Ukraine.

“Russia wants to discredit Ukraine in the eyes of countries that are one of the key ones in terms of direct and indirect support for Ukraine,” said Mykola Bieleskov, senior military analyst with the Come Back Alive Initiative.

A New Reality For The Baltics?

Many experts in Lithuania believe the drone incursions are far from over, especially when judging the frequency of the incursions over the last month. Lithuanian Minister of Defense Robertas Kaunas has stated that there is a “high possibility” that more incursions will occur.

In an interview with the Europe Today news program, Kaunas said, “This is the new reality of what the Baltic states face, we need to adapt because the possibility of repeated similar scenarios is very high.” 

New radar and sensor systems will be deployed over the next few months in response to these incidents, leveraging artificial intelligence to determine whether objects are hostile drones. Additionally, there are plans in place to deploy interceptor drones across Lithuania, according to Minister Kaunas.

“Those interceptors, once they receive a signal, should launch automatically, fly to the target based on its coordinates, and then a human operator—a soldier—makes the final decision on whether to destroy it or allow the reusable interceptor to return. That is the level of system we need,” Kaunas said.