Latin Analysis: Security Concerns Dominate Costa Rica’s Presidential Race
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Costa Rica has long promoted an image of stability and demilitarized democracy in a region prone to conflict and political volatility. That reputation is now being called into question over a series of security and political issues that are defining the conversation around the February 2026 presidential elections this year and the future of the country. Increasing crime rates, alongside an investigation into the electoral conduct of the incumbent president, paint a complex picture for the elections, whose outcome is highly uncertain, as voters remain largely undecided.
Costa Rica as a ‘Safe Haven’
Costa Rica famously has no armed forces, which may appear unusual in a generally turbulent region. The army was demobilized in 1949, after a civil war led to constitutional reform, and instead has a Public Force or Fuerza Pública for internal law enforcement. Many believe this meant that Costa Rica could avoid the military dictatorships that in the 20th century came to grip most countries in the region. The abolishment of the army is therefore seen as a major reason why Costa Rica saw an uninterrupted period of democracy.
Given their demilitarization, Costa Rica has long promoted an identity as a foil to the chronic insecurity experienced by the rest of Central America – an exception to the rule of coups and rebellions. In the wake of 9/11, the government in Costa Rica promoted the country as a “safe haven”, mainly as a strategy to promote tourism and foreign investment by leveraging Costa Rica’s atmosphere of peace and stability. While this was more of a marketing strategy, Costa Rica also has a long history of welcoming refugees and asylum seekers from its Central American peers and offering protection and integration efforts.
Demilitarizing in this sense also allowed Costa Rica to reallocate resources that would usually be set aside for military spending to social welfare and human development. Costa Rica has spent heavily on public education, resulting in one of the highest literacy rates in Latin America at around 98%. Without a military budget, there was also more room for spending on healthcare, environmental conservation, and infrastructure, generally encouraging a higher level of well-being.
However, this narrative of exceptionalism no longer seems to fit comfortably, as Costa Rica has seen its national security deteriorate in recent years, with higher homicide rates and escalating organized crime. In 2023, the homicide rate reached a record of 17.2 per 100,000 inhabitants, which was an increase of 98% in 10 years. Official police data attributes 60% of these homicides to organized crime, which in recent years has seen a diversification of activities along with an increase in the number of criminal organizations operating in the country.
Violence is not only drug-related, by also encompasses femicides and corruption. While 2023 saw the peak of violence, homicides fell slightly last year. The head of the Judicial Investigation Department in Costa Rica, Rándall Zúñiga, accredited this to an operation that sought to tackle crime in the Limón province, a drug trafficking port city with the highest homicide rate in the country in 2023. This led to a drop of 15% in homicides in Limón in 2024. Nevertheless, Costa Rica is still ranked as the seventh most violent country in Latin America, above Guatemala and Panama.
Aside from crime statistics, a series of events in 2025 has compounded the feeling that Costa Rica its long-standing reputation for security and rule of law is under pressure. A former security minister, Celso Gamboa, was arrested in June on account of drug trafficking and now faces extradition to the United States. A new constitutional reform passed last May allows extradition for drug trafficking and terrorism – Gamboa would therefore be one of the first Costa Ricans to face this reality.
Also in June was the assassination of retired Nicaraguan army major Roberto Samcam Ruiz. This raised fears over country’s ability to protect political exiles. Costa Rica currently hosts 55% of all Nicaraguan refugees worldwide. Since 2018, Costa Rica has received over 300,000 Nicaraguans seeking asylum from political persecution, violence, and human rights abuses, and severe economic instability under Daniel Ortega’s government. Samcam was an outspoken critic of Ortega, and his murder shook people’s faith in Costa Rica as a nation of refuge.
Security Concerns Dominate An Uncertain Contest
On February 1, over 3.7 million Costa Ricans are expected to head to the polls to elect a new president, two vice presidents, and the 57 seats in the legislature. The presidential candidate must win at least 40% of the vote to be successful in the first round. If not, the two leading candidates will advance to a runoff on April 5. It has not been the case since 2014 that a candidate has secured 40% in the first round, so the April vote is highly expected.
An opinion poll by the University of Costa Rica from September 2025 places security-related concerns as voters’ most critical issue. These concerns include security, crime, drug trafficking, and organized crime. Other Costa Ricans have expressed grievances about the quality of public services like health and education, as well as corruption and transparency.
The president in Costa Rica can hold office for one four-year term, and cannot serve consecutive terms. This means incumbent President Rodrigo Chaves – despite being largely popular with a 63% approval rating – cannot run. His party’s candidate, Laura Fernández, was previously chief of staff and minister of planning and economy policy, and seems to be campaigning with the intention of following his path. Other candidates include the far-right Fabricio Alvarado, centre-left Claudio Dobles, known for her environmental advocacy, and Alvaro Ramos, who served in Chávez's government as the head of social security.
It is highly uncertain which candidate will succeed, with 55% of Costa Ricans remaining undecided. Nevertheless, the election is generally expected to be a contest between Laura Fernández and the various opposition parties, which, as a bloc, remains fragmented. It is also expected that the next president will very likely face a divided Congress. President Chávez’s party currently holds only nine seats of the 57 in the legislature, which made advancing legislation difficult – Chávez struggled throughout his term to form alliances with other parties to do so. Therefore, much of Costa Rica’s future direction depends on the political skill of the next leader to overcome this.
The election is occurring as President Chávez faces investigation by the country’s electoral authority, known as the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE). This confrontation has seen two votes in less than five months to decide whether to strip Chávez’s presidential immunity, so that prosecutors can pursue possible electoral-law violations – these include political belligerence and interference. Many of these complaints were indeed put forward by leaders of opposition parties; nevertheless, the TSE unanimously accepted 15 out of 24 as possible “unwarranted interference”. The TSE ultimately voted to retain his immunity, keeping him shielded until his term ends in May 2026.
Taken together, the rise in violence and the institutional tensions surrounding Chávez’s presidency underscore a broader erosion of Costa Rica’s identity as a regional outlier defined by stability and strong democratic norms. As voters head to the polls, the election will test not only competing approaches to crime and governance but also whether the country can reconcile its image as a safe and stable democracy in the face of its political and security realities in recent years.