Latin Analysis: Latin America Braces For A Stronger El Niño
Francesco Ungaro
Forecasters have warned that this year, El Niño could be stronger than usual. In Latin America, the weather event has historically brought droughts, floods, wildfires, and food insecurity. This year in particular, however, will pose a significant stress test for governments already grappling with strained public services, tight budgets, and fragile infrastructure.
The event brings distinct challenges to different parts of the region – where one country may face drought and power shortages, another must prepare for flooding and landslides. The through-line, however, is how the state of emergency planning, infrastructure, and public services across these countries will play a major role in determining how severely any damage will impact vulnerable communities and the economy.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is the periodic warming of the equatorial Pacific that disrupts rainfall and temperature patterns across the region. It is declared when the sea surface temperature at a defined point in the central Pacific rises at least 0.5°C above the historical average for three consecutive months. A stronger event, like the one forecast for 2026, involves a larger temperature anomaly, exceeding 2°C.
The effects across Latin America are geographically asymmetric. In Central America, the Caribbean, northern Colombia, Venezuela, and the upper Amazon, El Niño typically suppresses rainfall, producing drought, crop failure, and energy shortfalls. In Pacific coastal areas, however, the pattern is the reverse, bringing excess rainfall and flood risk to parts of Peru and Ecuador and across the Southern Cone – southern Brazil, Uruguay, northern Argentina, and central Chile.
The damage is often exacerbated by weak infrastructure, under-resourced emergency systems, and poor governance. That can transform a climate shock into a humanitarian crisis. A look into three national case studies illustrates how El Niño can cause different types of crises depending on the country and the local context in which it arrives.
Three Countries, Three Different Crises
Colombia: Hydropower
Colombia generates roughly two-thirds of its national electricity from hydroelectric dams, making rainfall central to the national grid’s function and stability. This dependence becomes a huge liability when El Niño dries out the Andean region, where 90% of the population lives, and where Colombia’s major reservoirs are located. When reservoirs fall, hydroelectric dams generate less power, forcing more reliance on thermal plants burning gas or coal. That backup is more expensive, and in Colombia’s case, has its own supply pressures. This has a precedent during the 2023-24 El Niño, when reservoirs in Bogotá fell, prompting water rationing and cuts to electricity exports to Ecuador. In the face of the projections for this year, the government has stressed the need for urgent action – including measures such as wildfire prevention and environmental monitoring.
Peru: Fishing and floods
Peru sustains one of the world’s most productive fisheries, built around the Peruvian anchovy – this species is essential to global fishmeal supplies and animal feed supply chains, and can produce approximately $3 billion USD each year. The anchovy is therefore not just vital to Peru’s economy but has an important role in food production worldwide. During El Niño, however, warmer coastal waters suppress the upward flow of cold water – an oceanographic process called upwelling – that sustains the marine ecosystem, and push the fish to migrate south, out of standard fishing zones.
At the same time, El Niño can bring torrential coastal rains to Peru. Those rains can damage roads, pipelines, and bridges, and interrupt important transport corridors that connect mines and production centers to Peruvian ports such as Callao. In a strong El Niño scenario, analysts estimate that the Andean subregion could suffer a measurable hit to GDP, with infrastructure, logistics, and export sectors among the first to feel the pressure.
Guatemala: Drought and hunger
Guatemala’s position in the Dry Corridor – an arc of drought-prone land stretching across El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua – makes it especially vulnerable. When El Niño weakens the winds that drive seasonal rainfall, Guatemala’s primary crop cycles can fail very quickly. These include the Primera crop cycle from May to August, and the Postrera from August to October. Especially for rural households, which are dependent on subsistence agriculture, that means losing two chances over the course of the year to grow staple crops. Once food reserves are exhausted, families may be forced to reduce meals, sell assets, or migrate in search of work.
During the 2015-16 El Niño, some of the worst-hit areas in the Northern Triangle lost between half and all of their maize and bean harvests. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization counted 3.5 million people in need of assistance within the subregion. In 2026, early activations of anticipatory action frameworks through the UN’s Central Emergency Response Fund have mobilised resources, aiming to protect around 145,000 people across El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras ahead of the Primera season. It is uncertain whether financing will be committed in time to protect the Postrera cycle.
Are Governments Prepared?
El Niño produces different crises in different places, but governments face similar challenges when natural disasters hit – including tight government budgets and strained public services with less capacity.
Preparedness is therefore crucial. Humanitarian groups stress that early action is more effective than reacting after the damage has been done. Across Latin America and the Caribbean, 22 countries now have active or developing anticipatory action frameworks, backed by $37.8 million in pre-arranged financing. These systems can help governments and aid groups act before droughts, floods, and food shortages peak.
Humanitarian groups have been calling on governments to integrate updated climate forecasts into national contingency planning, to finalise protocols for both drought and flooding scenarios, and for donors to commit flexible financing before El Niño peaks. Early warnings, stronger infrastructure, better water management, targeted food support, and flexible emergency financing are important measures that may not remove the threat, but could reduce the economic cost and the chance of a humanitarian crisis.