In America: Public Approval and the Growing Distaste For War
After nearly half a year of war with Iran, the latest Reuters/Ipsos Poll found that one in three Americans supports the war with Iran. President Trump’s approval rating also moved up by 3 points compared to last month’s reading, when his approval rating tied the lowest of his presidency. This latest reading is the lowest since the war began in late February.
The poll surveyed 1,248 adults on July 24-26 and asked them what they think about US attacks on Iran. Among Republicans, 71% approved of the war, 26% disapproved, and 4% skipped the question. Among Democrats, 5% approved of the war, 93% disapproved, and 1% skipped the question. Among Independents, 25% approved of the war, 67% disapproved, and 8% skipped the question.
Comparing these numbers with approval ratings from the early days of the Afghanistan War and Iraq War reveals the prevalent distaste for war in America. A specific, declining trend in approval ratings since the turn of the 21st century has afflicted America’s wars in the Middle East. In popular culture, the term “forever wars” has come to describe the most cited grievance among the public when it comes to America’s wars in the Middle East.
Even before the Afghanistan War was officially underway, American public approval of military action in retaliation for the 9/11 terror attacks sat at 93% according to a Washington Post/ABC News poll released two days after the Twin Towers fell. Similar trends continued throughout the early months of fighting, with a Gallup poll indicating that public approval of the Afghanistan War topped 90% at times.
The Iraq War also saw strong public support at its onset, but not to the same extent as the Afghanistan War. A Pew Research poll asked Americans about their support for the potential use of force in Iraq, with 73% in favor. Strong public support for the Iraq War continued through its early days and was bolstered by rapid military victory over Saddam Hussein and Iraq’s military forces.
This trend of a temporary boost in public approval of war is known in political science as the “rally around the flag” effect. Other prominent examples of such include President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis and President George H.W. Bush during Operation Desert Storm. However, this boost to public approval is often short-lived and not guaranteed to last until the end of the war.
Public opinion of both the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars began to shift once the wars’ stated objectives were completed, or at least were perceived to be completed. In Afghanistan, the main goal was to eliminate Osama bin Laden, which became increasingly complicated with the challenges of occupying a foreign country. A Pew Research poll indicates that public support for the Afghanistan War began to decline in 2009, before the assassination of Osama bin Laden. In Iraq, the main goals ranged from eliminating Saddam Hussein to finding and dismantling suspected weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Infamously, there was never any evidence found that supported the US claim of WMD being built in Iraq. Once these goals were presented as achieved, American public approval ratings of these wars plummeted because these wars continued seemingly “forever,” with no tangible objective following military victory and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan.
One explanation for the American public’s much stronger distaste for the Iran War could be that the bitter experience from the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars still lives quite prominently within people’s memories. The Iraq War formally ended in 2011 and the Afghanistan War formally ended in 2021. Both major conflicts have defined the experiences of a generation now of voting age.
Possibly amplifying the negative experiences associated with America’s “forever wars” are the ambiguous objectives of the war. President Trump has stated a diverse set of objectives, from “unconditional surrender” to a memorandum of understanding (now expired). In the weeks leading up to the US strikes on Iran in February, White House officials also noted the importance of ensuring that Iran cannot build WMDs. The Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 69% of Americans, including 4 in 10 Republicans, think President Trump had not “clearly explained the goals of US military involvement in Iran.”
The confusion surrounding why the US is at war with Iran also has domestic political ramifications for President Trump’s political party as the midterm elections approach. Already, the Republican Party faces numerous congressional seats up for election in the middle of a deeply unpopular war started by a Republican president. Upstart challengers from the Democratic Socialist Party also look to contend with Democratic and Republican competition alike.
Alex Conant, a Republican political strategist who worked under the George W. Bush administration, commented on the rising costs of the Iran War for the Republican Party.
“This puts pressure on the party in a myriad of ways, all of them bad. The White House officials have been saying since January that they need to win economic arguments. It’s hard to win economic arguments when you’re clearly focused on foreign policy.”
Economic arguments are also hard to win when a president can not keep his or her campaign promises. In 2024, President Trump campaigned heavily on keeping the US out of international conflicts.
Rhyan Anderson, an independent from Georgia who voted for Trump in 2024, commented on what he thinks the President should be focusing on.
“My biggest thing is just focus on the people who are actually in this country. I know we have allies and things like that, but there’s a lot of people here that really need help.”
Ultimately, the latest polling data on public approval of the Iran War reflects the bitterness and negativity surrounding the last two decades of America’s “forever wars.” A sea change in American public approval of the Iran War is unlikely. Similarly, public approval of the Iran War will likely continue to decline. The Iran War will be remembered as yet another chapter in America’s “forever wars.”