Latin Analysis: The Issues Shaping Colombia’s 2026 Elections
After four years under President Gustavo Petro, Colombian voters are set to choose a new Congress and a new head of state against a backdrop of rising political violence, strained public finances, and a recalibrated relationship with Washington. With security topping public concerns and the economy under pressure, the campaign has evolved into a referendum not only on Petro’s legacy but also on the direction Colombia should take in confronting armed groups, managing its fiscal challenges, and redefining its international partnerships.
How The 2026 Elections Will Unfold
Colombia’s 2026 election cycle will first see a round of legislative elections on March 8 followed by a presidential vote on May 31. On the same day as the legislative elections, Colombians can also vote in the presidential primaries, choosing the nominees for the leadership of three coalitions, including ones on the left, right, and center of the political spectrum.
Gustavo Petro, the current president in office since 2022, is constitutionally unable to run for a second term. In his stead, senator and human rights activist Iván Cepeda has been selected as the candidate for Pacto Histórico (the Historical Pact), the left-wing political alliance currently in power. Cepeda is a member of the Polo Democrático Alternativo, one of the principal parties within the alliance. He originally intended to participate in the left-wing coalition’s primary – however, on February 4, he was barred from the March primaries by the National Electoral Council. This was because he already took part in his own party’s primary last October, in which he earned 64.4% of the vote – this strong show of support positioned Cepeda as the top candidate for the upcoming presidential elections with a commanding lead.
Another frontrunner for the presidency, Abelardo de la Espriella, will also be sitting out the March primaries. De la Espriella, a far-right lawyer who has been compared to El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele, opted not to participate in the right-wing primary as he wanted to run as an independent candidate. With his strong showing in the polls for the right-wing base, he has nothing to gain electorally from a primary. This choice also fits into his broader anti-establishment narrative, which is a cornerstone of his political identity and campaign.
De la Espriella’s strong performance so far is notable as his ideology seeks to depart from traditional party structures towards a populist model and a radicalization of the political agenda. An essential part of his campaign is an emphasis on la patria, or “the homeland”, evident in his interviews, speeches, and social media posts. His comparisons to Bukele – apart from an eerily similar goatee – stem from his comparable hard-line security policies and anti-establishment ideology. De la Espriella has proposed renewed air strikes on guerrilla and trafficking camps, rapid military reinforcement using modern surveillance technologies, and the resumption of coca crop eradication from the air alongside programs encouraging farmers to switch to legal crops such as cacao and palm.
Political violence has become a key concern in the run up to the elections. According to Colombia’s Electoral Observation Mission, at least 61 political leaders have been killed during the current electoral campaign cycle. This was brought into sharp focus with the killing of senator and presidential hopeful Miguel Uribe Turbay last June; Turbay was murdered while campaigning in Bogota. This is an area where Gustavo Petro, with relatively low approval ratings at 38%, has faced criticism – during the incumbent president’s four-year term, armed groups have expanded territory and gained wealth with the increase in coca production. Many Colombians blame this uptick in violence to the current government’s strategy of negotiating, rather than fighting, these armed groups. This is therefore an issue that may assist De la Espriella when compared with Cepeda’s more dovish approach to armed groups that prioritises dialogue over confrontation.
Renewed Engagement With Washington
A key foreign policy talking point of the upcoming elections is Colombia’s relationship with the United States. The issue came to the forefront earlier this month with a high-profile meeting between Presidents Gustavo Petro and Donald Trump. After a year of public antagonism between the two leaders, rooted in their divergence on geopolitical issues and counter-narcotics policy, the meeting was surprisingly cordial. Only a month earlier, the Trump administration ousted former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and warned Petro himself could face a similar fate. However, the February meeting struck a markedly more positive and constructive tone. Petro demonstrated a willingness to cooperate with the Trump administration on issues such as the support of Venezuela’s economic recovery and action against transnational criminal organizations. Additionally, Petro raised his dispute with Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa, namely Noboa’s plan to impose a 30% tariff on Colombia over its failure to curb drug trafficking. Petro suggested a trilateral counternarcotics effort involving the United States, requesting Trump’s cooperation and involvement as a mediator.
While it is unclear whether any of these proposed initiatives will materialize, it marks a clear shift in relations between the two leaders. This movement towards engagement with Trump has implications for the electoral landscape in the run up to the elections in March and May. The stabilization in tensions may ease Petro’s unpopularity domestically for his last six months in office and leave him with a stronger legacy, that could in turn benefit Iván Cepeda’s campaign for the ruling party. Managing bilateral ties with Washington will be a central element of foreign policy strategy come August 7, 2026, when the incoming president takes office.
Public Finances Under Pressure
Aside from a complicated relationship with the United States, the next Colombian president will also inherit a difficult economic situation, marked by significant fiscal pressures. In 2025, the government activated an emergency clause that effectively suspended Colombia’s fiscal rule until 2027 and revised deficit targets to be higher, meaning the gap between state revenues and expenditures has widened. Analysts already expect the incoming administration to confront weakened public finances and limited budget flexibility, making early tax reform or spending adjustments likely once the new president takes office in August.
Economic debate has also intensified due to inflation concerns. In December 2025, President Gustavo Petro declared a 23% increase in the monthly minimum wage, raising it from 1.42 million pesos (approximately USD $380) to 1.75 million pesos (about USD $470). While the policy was welcomed by many workers, economists and political opponents warn it could fuel price increases and complicate efforts to stabilize public finances. As a result, the election campaign has increasingly focused not only on security and corruption but also on unemployment, inflation, and the broader economic model the country should pursue.
Colombia’s 2026 elections are unfolding amid a volatile mix of security fears, economic uncertainty, and shifting foreign relations. Voters face a stark choice between competing visions: continuity with the left, or a harder-line strategy emphasizing security and state authority. The outcome will not only determine how Colombia addresses rising violence and fiscal pressures, but also how it manages its strategic partnership with the United States and its role in the wider region over the coming years.