EU Currents: Navigating The Strait

Background

Recent issues in the Strait of Hormuz have reached a critical point. Iranian forces have engaged cargo ships attempting to transit the Strait, and leadership within the European Union has had its say on the strategies that the bloc should be enacting in response. Kaja Kallas, the High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, has succinctly summarized the issue: The issue at hand is ‘not Europe’s war.’

Individual member states have already signaled their intention to step away from the conflict. Switzerland and Spain, at the outset of the Iranian conflict, immediately declared that airspace and airbases in their respective nations would be off-limits to American forces mounting offensive strikes against Iran.

Jose Manuel Albares, the Spanish foreign minister, reiterated Madrid’s desire for a free and democratic future for the Iranian people but declared that Spain would not allow for the use of its jointly operated bases without certain parameters being met.

 In an interview with the Spanish network Telecinco, Albares stated that the bases “…are not being used – nor will they be used – for anything that is not in the agreement, nor for anything that isn’t covered by the UN charter.”

This type of response has been consistent from most of the EU’s member-states. Anna Matilde Bassoli, a military analyst who specializes in maritime issues, believes that these decisions are part of a change in mindset on the part of European nations.

“It shows how the Europeans are really trying to chart their own path when it comes to using their defensive capabilities for transatlantic purposes, rather than for military operations that the U.S. initiates autonomously," Bassoli said.

Defending The Strait

As of now, the EU’s only involvement in the region is through Operation Aspides, a naval operation which was initiated in 2024 in response to attacks on commercial ships perpetrated by the Houthis.

The operation is supported by seven member states: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Spain, and has a primarily defensive mandate.

Kallas acknowledged the importance of Operation Aspides, and during a meeting with the EU Foreign Affairs Council to discuss the possibility of extending the mandate, the council decided that the naval force would receive additional resources for defensive purposes, but according to Kallas, there is “…no appetite for changing the mandate of Operation Aspides for now.”

At present, the EU is maintaining a more diplomatic strategy with regard to the Iranian conflict, doubling down on measures against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, designating them as a terrorist organization in the wake of the Iranian regime’s crackdown on protestors this past January.

Additionally, in a press release put out by the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council, Kallas stated that she engaged in discussions with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres on strategies to ensure open and safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

One strategy that Kallas and Guterres discussed was a possible replication of the Black Sea Initiative, a measure that was enacted to ensure the safe passage of ships carrying grain and fertilizer from Ukrainian ports to markets abroad. The measure was an agreement between Türkiye, Ukraine, Russia, and the United Nations, finalized in July 2022.

Although the measure enabled the export of more than 1.4 billion tons of grain across the world, relieving concerns of famine in nations like Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen, the measure could only be honored when all parties cooperated.

Russia argued that it was not benefiting enough from the deal and subsequently withdrew from the pact in July 2023.

A similar agreement would likely involve cooperation from the Iranian government, and though brokering such an agreement would be a diplomatic win for the European Union, it would be reliant on full cooperation from the Iranian government. Protracted hostilities may threaten that cooperation, even if the EU is not part of the belligerents.

The Cost Of The Shutdown

Existing alternatives to traversing the Strait of Hormuz are unfortunately not viable for the long term. The neighboring Red Sea has been struggling with security issues of its own, particularly with attacks being perpetrated by Houthi forces in the region. Bolstering resources for Operation Aspides could inspire confidence; however, most shipping companies have still preferred to re-route their shipments around the Cape of Good Hope instead, a move that increases shipping costs and transit times.

The EU heavily relies on oil imports, especially with sanctions on Russian oil and gas still ongoing and despite diversification, the European energy economy is vulnerable to events like the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

12-15% of all European oil imports transit through the strait and the European shift from Russian gas to imported liquified natural gas further complicates the issue, particularly in member states like Italy and Germany that rely on gas-adjacent industries. What remains to be seen is whether the EU will be willing to stick to the sanctions on Russian oil and gas, given the situation.

Removing Sanctions: Europe’s Lifeline?

Some leaders in Europe have floated the idea of relaxing sanctions, particularly Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever. He stated that the idea was “common sense”, citing a looming energy crisis that could drive the EU into an economic recession.

Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Antonio Tajani also voiced support for a move back to Russian energy, but was more cognizant of the optics at play, emphasizing that the EU must continue to enforce sanctions while hostilities are ongoing.

Tajani stated, “Once peace is reached, we are not at war with Russia, we can start doing what we used to do a long time ago, but now there is a situation that prevents us from having a remiss attitude towards the Russian Federation.”

Perhaps the strongest rebuke against such a move has come from EU Commissioner for Energy and Housing, Dan Jørgensen. Despite the compounding effects of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and other regional conflicts, he emphasized the need for the EU to stick to its resolve.

“We are determined to stay on course. It would be a mistake for us to repeat what we did in the past,” Jørgensen said. “The signal is very clear: in the future, we will not import any more molecules from Russia.”