Public Interest: Can the Burnham Bounce last?
smartboy10
The UK's recent local elections, which took place across the UK at the beginning of the summer, must surely go down as among the most consequential in living memory. Whilst it is common for local elections to be used to give the government of the day a kicking, this time it resulted in the long anticipated downfall of the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer. Labour MPs quickly turned on their leader after their Party's disastrous results at the locals, with many being adamant that Starmer could not lead them into the next general election if they were to avoid a repeat of this. Starmer stepped down on July 20, 2026 after more than a year of falling behind in the polls.
Andy Burnham had been the favourite to replace Starmer from the start, having won popularity amongst the wider public as well as Labour Party supporters during his time as Manchester Mayor. With his seemingly more laid back, casual style, Burnham immediately seemed like a more approachable and media savvy choice for leader than the more awkward and technocratic Starmer. With the Trumpian Reform party seemingly on a meteoric rise at the locals however, taking seats from both Labour and the Conservatives, the UK's traditional two parties, the question remained whether simply changing the leader would be enough to turn around Labour's performance.
In the month since Andy Burnham has succeeded Starmer, it has seemed that it might be. Upon taking office, Burnham had reiterated his intention to reverse “40 decades of neoliberalism.” Whilst he has yet to reveal the details of his “ten year plan” to achieve this, he has nevertheless outlined a number of key policies intended to help ease the cost of living in the short term, including a promised cut to VAT on household bills, a cap on bus fares, and most significantly, a pledge, announced in his maiden speech on July 20th, to end rough sleeping by Christmas.
This, it appears, has, alongside Burnham's own personal charisma, had an effect. Commentators have talked about the ‘Burnham Bounce’ that appears to have taken place over the past month, as Labour have gone from absolute catastrophe to gaining a four point lead in the polls, their highest ratings since the beginning of last year. Burnham has been enjoying a lead over both Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and, perhaps more notably, the Reform leader Nigel Farage - particularly following the greater scrutiny of Farage's finances and his subsequent decision to hold a by-election in Clacton, a move that all of the other main parties chose not to recognize. Burnham's premiership appears to have benefited the Labour Party more generally, as well as Burnham himself, as seen with it's win at the Mayoral contest that took place in Manchester at the end of last month, in spite of this contest only having taken place because Burnham had stepped down as the Mayor, as well as the Greens recent high-profile win in the Manchester seat of Gorton and Denton.
The question though, is how long this “bounce” can be expected to last. Burnham, with his down to earth approach, has without question proved more popular so far than Starmer ever seemed capable of being. But much of this boost in Labour's popularity can doubtless also be put down simply to a new face being at the wheel. This kind of momentary boost in popularity is, after all, something that has been true for many incoming Prime Ministers, with Starmer arguably being notable for being one of the few, alongside Liz Truss, to have next to no “honeymoon period.”
Some within both the Conservatives and the Reform parties have already been open about how they had been expecting a temporary drop in support, but believe this is likely to turn back around the longer that Burnham is in office, and goes from the novelty of a new face, to simply another face to which people can attach the blame for the government's various failings.
Indeed this may already be happening, as recent YouGov polls once again show Reform in first place, with Labour in second. Last week, Farage finally emerged as the winner of the by-election he had triggered, though of course, this had largely been a foregone conclusion - particularly following the decision by the other parties not to contest the seat, resulting in a situation where Farage's main opponent was joke candidate Count Binface.
This is a shift that is likely only to increase should the level of change under Burnham's government prove to be less consequential than he might have indicated. Whilst he has continued to talk about an end to the orthodoxy that has dominated UK politics for the past forty years, Burnham has continued to maintain that this can be achieved whilst sticking to the fiscal rules that Starmer had run on in 2024. Meanwhile, on a whole swathe of issues, from migration, to welfare, and pensions, Burnham's premiership so far can in fact be seen as continuing many of the policy choices of Starmer's government.
Whilst therefore the “Burnham Bounce” may be real, it is not something that can be relied on to last indefinitely, and almost certainly by the time of the Autumn budget, some of the sheen may already have been rubbed off. This then raises the question of whether the government ought to be looking to capitalize on this now. Burnham had previously dismissed the prospect of an early election following his taking office. However, this is something that he could perhaps take time to reconsider.
Two previous Labour Prime Minister's, James Callaghan and Gordon Brown, had, in their turns, faced similar opportunities to hold early elections upon their taking office whilst Labour were already in power. In both cases, it has been argued, they could potentially have won had they done so, whereas in fact, their popularity only went downhill from there, and in both cases, they ultimately allowed the Conservatives to win out instead.
Crucially however, an early election could also allow Burnham the opportunity to actually implement the kinds of radical changes he has already talked about, as a win on the back of a new manifesto would provide him with the mandate to push through such policies. Of course, it is by no means certain that Labour would win an early election - just as it was not in 1978, or 2007. As seen in recent polls, Reform already seems headed towards recapturing their place as No.1 in terms of overall popularity. As more time goes by however, the prospect of the Burnham Bounce disappearing entirely becomes only more stark.
